201
FXUS62 KKEY 140340
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1040 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A FRONT REMAINS OVER THE KEYS BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HIGH RAIN CHANCES. PEAK RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM NOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING.
-DRYING AND FRESHENING BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK, MILD, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
IT HAS BEEN A WET LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE FOR THE ENTIRE TIME.
THE MOST RIGOROUS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN. OCCASIONALLY, THE RAIN BECAME HEAVY FOR SOME ISLAND CHAIN
COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY AROUND SUGARLOAF KEY, BIG PINE KEY, AND
THEN NEAR WINDLEY KEY EARLIER. MRMS DATA SHOWS WIDESPREAD
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE STRAITS WITH
POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 5 INCHES. FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN, THERE WERE
WIDESPREAD ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN SOME PLACES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOWER 70S. MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CHAIN.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR THE KEYS CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THROUGH
THE KEYS THIS EVENING WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN THAT IS
STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. THIS ONE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
THE KEYS COVERAGE AREA FROM THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR THE
ISLAND CHAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WANING ACROSS THE
STRAITS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, ANY LULL IS EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY BRIEF AS WE EXPECT THIS SECONDARY AREA TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING THE KEYS MOSTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ALSO CAME IN QUITE SATURATED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TWO DRY LAYERS. ONE DRY LAYER WAS MEASURED
BETWEEN 900-850 MB WITH THE SECOND FROM 775 TO 650 MB. THE PWAT
VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.93 INCHES WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE MAX
VALUE FOR THE DATE OF 2.03 INCHES. ALL IN ALL, WE HAVE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, AN ACTIVE
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TO
THE EXTENT IT WAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY, NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH THIS UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) UNTIL WINDS DECREASE
IS HEADLINED FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND HAWK CHANNEL. FROM
SYNOPSIS, MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES NORTH OF THE CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES SUNDAY
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
BREEZES SLACKEN STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, PERIODIC EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS
AND POTENTIALLY VIS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE RAIN STARTING TO LULL FOR EYW WITH
MTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE ARE MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF JUST OUTSIDE THE KEYS THAT MAY ENCROACH ON THE TERMINALS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RAIN MOSTLY ENDING
AROUND 14/09Z, THOUGH, WE CANNOT STILL RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER
AFTERWARDS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR
THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BY LATE SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 71 80 67 / 60 80 40 20
MARATHON 79 71 78 67 / 50 80 50 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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