557
FXUS62 KKEY 141118
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
618 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY.
-GENERALLY GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
AND FRESHEN BY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME, OR ALL, OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BY EITHER TONIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK, MILD, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE ESSENTIALLY
PLATEAUED DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT AS PERSISTENT, BUT LIGHT,
SHOWERS LINGERED. MRMS ESTIMATES RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS HAVE BEEN UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR ISLAND
COMMUNITIES, BUT POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE DISTANT
FLORIDA STRAITS MAY HAVE PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 INCHES. IF
THOSE SHOWERS HAD MOVED OVER ANY PORTION OF THE KEYS, THIS WOULD
HAVE BEEN A SLAM DUNK FOR FLOODING. FORTUNATELY, WE DO NOT NEED
FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR OUR LOCAL SEA LIFE. AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BEHIND. WHILE NOT TERRIBLE, THE MOISTURE IS NOTICEABLE IN
THE AIR WHEN STEPPING OUTSIDE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL IN PLACE TO SUPPORT MORNING SHOWERS,
BUT THIS SUPPORT WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED AWAY TODAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS DOES MEAN THAT SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, THERE IS A TRADEOFF. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN
DRASTICALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE, AND HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THEN, THE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ISN'T GREAT WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY TONIGHT DUE TO FRESHENING BREEZES. FROM SYNOPSIS, SHOWERS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. GENERALLY
GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE
NORTH AND FRESHEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
KEYS MARINE ZONES TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. BREEZES SLACKEN STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN GENTLE
TO MODERATE AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING IS INTERMITTENTLY
IMPACTING BOTH TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD AND CLEARS THE TERMINALS BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.
DESPITE THIS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME DROPS INTO
MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VISBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS,
AS IS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT THE TRANSIENT NATURE
OF THESE EPISODES LEAVES ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT
MENTION FOR NOW, INSTEAD LEAVING DETAILS FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES AND
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH POTENTIAL CROSSWIND ISSUES WITH
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1871, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.40" WAS RECORDED
AT KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 68 78 68 / 50 20 10 20
MARATHON 77 68 75 68 / 50 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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