336
FXUS62 KKEY 141600
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
-GENERALLY GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
AND FRESHEN BY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME, OR ALL, OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BY EITHER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK, MILD, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
AN ALMOST NIGHT AND DAY DIFFERENCE FROM 24-HOURS AGO. THE WARM
FRONT THAT BROUGHT US THE GLOOMY AND RAINY DAY YESTERDAY HAS SLID
BACK SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WE'RE SEEING
PLENTY MORE BRIGHT AND BLUE SKIES AS OPPOSED TO GRAY AND DREARY.
KBYX RADAR SHOWS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED FOR NOW. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL AWAITING A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL FEATURE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS THIS FEATURE PIVOTS THROUGH WE COULD SEE A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THAT BEING SAID, CURRENT THINKING FOR ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR OUTER GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE IN A COL FOR NOW AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO ARRIVE. SAID FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL STEADILY MARCH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR A LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO
REFINE POPS (LOWERED) FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS WELL AS WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE A COL THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS FROM NEARLY ALL DIRECTIONS.
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BAY WINDS VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
OVER THE HAWK CHANNEL, WINDS ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, WHILE
NORTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AND LASTLY WINDS
ARE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE OUTER GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE DAWN MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER GULF
WATERS TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TOWARDS DAWN
AND DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE FORECAST. WATCHING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO POSSIBLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
CROSSWIND MAGNITUDE REACHING 20 KNOTS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
06Z/14TH AND BECOMING MORE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE ESSENTIALLY
PLATEAUED DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT AS PERSISTENT, BUT LIGHT,
SHOWERS LINGERED. MRMS ESTIMATES RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS HAVE BEEN UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR ISLAND
COMMUNITIES, BUT POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE DISTANT
FLORIDA STRAITS MAY HAVE PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 INCHES. IF
THOSE SHOWERS HAD MOVED OVER ANY PORTION OF THE KEYS, THIS WOULD
HAVE BEEN A SLAM DUNK FOR FLOODING. FORTUNATELY, WE DO NOT NEED
FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR OUR LOCAL SEA LIFE. AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BEHIND. WHILE NOT TERRIBLE, THE MOISTURE IS NOTICEABLE IN
THE AIR WHEN STEPPING OUTSIDE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL IN PLACE TO SUPPORT MORNING SHOWERS,
BUT THIS SUPPORT WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED AWAY TODAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS DOES MEAN THAT SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, THERE IS A TRADEOFF. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN
DRASTICALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE, AND HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THEN, THE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ISN'T GREAT WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 68 78 68 / 30 20 10 20
MARATHON 77 68 75 68 / 20 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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