192
FXUS62 KKEY 141835
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
135 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30%) FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA.
-COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING
NORTHERLY BREEZES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL, OF OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK, MILD, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN IN A COL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZES. A COLD
FRONT IS POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT BREEZES TO FRESHEN TO
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZES WILL
FURTHER FRESHEN AND FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE
DAWN MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL OCCUR IN
THE OUTER GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING
WATERS TOWARDS DAWN AND DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
FRESHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO THEN SHARPLY
FRESHEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. A CROSSWIND
MAGNITUDE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z/15TH.
IN ADDITION, MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL A DECK AT FL020.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE ESSENTIALLY
PLATEAUED DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT AS PERSISTENT, BUT LIGHT,
SHOWERS LINGERED. MRMS ESTIMATES RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS HAVE BEEN UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR ISLAND
COMMUNITIES, BUT POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE DISTANT
FLORIDA STRAITS MAY HAVE PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 INCHES. IF
THOSE SHOWERS HAD MOVED OVER ANY PORTION OF THE KEYS, THIS WOULD
HAVE BEEN A SLAM DUNK FOR FLOODING. FORTUNATELY, WE DO NOT NEED
FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR OUR LOCAL SEA LIFE. AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES BEHIND. WHILE NOT TERRIBLE, THE MOISTURE IS NOTICEABLE IN
THE AIR WHEN STEPPING OUTSIDE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL IN PLACE TO SUPPORT MORNING SHOWERS,
BUT THIS SUPPORT WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED AWAY TODAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS DOES MEAN THAT SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, THERE IS A TRADEOFF. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN
DRASTICALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE, AND HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THEN, THE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ISN'T GREAT WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 78 68 77 / 20 20 20 10
MARATHON 68 75 68 76 / 20 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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