010
FXUS62 KKEY 150332
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30%) FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA.
-A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESHENING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL, OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK, MILD, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
A MUCH QUIETER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN COMPARED TO JUST 24
HOURS AGO. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. KBYX
RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WERE OVER THE DISTANT STRAITS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH DISSIPATED NOT LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS
WITH NORTH KEY LARGO TO OCEAN REEF OBSERVING SOME MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. ALSO, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IN CONNECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN COASTAL
WATERS, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE. A VERY LIGHT
SHOWER ALSO MOVED THROUGH PARTS OF KEY WEST ABOUT AN HOUR AGO.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW
POINTS ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES. MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE OBSERVING NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES NEAR 15
KNOTS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
FRESHENING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY OUT WHEN COMPARED TO LAST EVENING. THE
PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.49 INCHES WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE DISPLAYS MAINLY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 330 DEGREES AROUND 1000 FT AGL AND 315
DEGREES AT 3000 FT AGL. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS
ESTIMATED PWATS OF 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES MOVING STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE KEYS. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE UPPER KEYS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC)
FOR INCREASING WINDS IS HEADLINED FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, HAWK
CHANNEL, FLORIDA BAY, AND THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS. IN
ADDITION, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING REMAINS HEADLINED FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA,
FLORIDA BAY, HAWK CHANNEL, AND THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO FRESHENING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
BREEZES SLACKEN STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ITS
WAKE, EXPECT INCREASING CROSSWINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WE KEPT MVFR
CIGS OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW TO
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, THOUGH, WE HINT AT THIS WITH A SCT DECK
AROUND FL020.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 69 76 68 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON 77 68 75 68 / 20 20 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ033-034.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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