085
FXUS62 KKEY 151829
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
129 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN (20 TO 30%) WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PIVOTS IN ACROSS THE AREA.
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
MILD, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF BREEZES WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. TOWARDS MID-WEEK A RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S AND GULF COAST REGION AND FLATTEN. THIS WILL ALLOW BREEZES TO
SLACKEN FURTHER TO LIGHT TO GENTLE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK FRONT WILL HOBBLE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FRESHEN
BREEZES BACK TO GENTLE TO MODERATE. MEANWHILE, ENHANCED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, TENDING TO FAVOR ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SHOWER COVERAGE IS SLOWLY EXPANDING WEST SOUTHWEST AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE PIVOTS IN ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
HAS STAYED OFFSHORE BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A VCSH FOR MTH.
ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO PASS OVER THE MTH TERMINAL COULD BRING
BRIEF MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTIONS OF VCSH FOR EYW AT THIS TIME. LASTLY, GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET DURING THIS OVERNIGHT
SHIFT, BUT OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING POCKETS OF SHOWERS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. THE SHOWERS CLOSEST TO
THE KEYS HAVE BEEN FILTERING IN FROM THE AREA JUST OFFSHORE OF
MIAMI, BUT THE NEWEST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS SEEMS
TO BE FORMING ALONG SOME KIND OF BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S, BUT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH HAVE MADE IT FEEL
A LITTLE CHILLIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. GOES-19 IR
IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOME OF OUR MARINE
ZONES, BUT THE ISLAND CHAIN IS STILL EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR WARM WEATHER LOVERS, BECAUSE THE MORNING
SUNSHINE MAY TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF OF THE CHILL. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER MAY FILL IN AS SHOWERS INCREASE, SO EXPECT ON AND OFF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT TODAY.
THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT FROM THIS COLD FRONT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN OUR SURFACE WINDS. BOTH NAEFS AND ECMWF
PERCENTILES SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. THIS IS A SIGNAL
THAT SIMPLY TELLS US THE WINDS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE MUCH
HIGHER THAN WHAT AN "AVERAGE" FORECAST WOULD HOLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WHILE THIS DOESN'T OFFER AN INSIGHT TO JUST HOW HIGH THESE
WINDS WILL BE, IT DOES PROVIDE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY.
AS THE PARENT TROUGH PIVOTS AND LIFTS OVER THE COMING DAYS,
BREEZES WILL START TO SLACKEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEAN LAYER RIDGING WILL ENCOURAGE A NEW PUSH OF
MOISTURE, BUT GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO DETERMINE JUST HOW
SUBSTANTIAL THIS MOISTURE WILL BE. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
POINT TO SOME CHANCES FOR RAINFALL, BUT THE NBM HAS SINGLE DIGIT
POPS. WE LIKELY WON'T SEE THIS WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS COME TO AN
AGREEMENT UNTIL WE CLEAR THIS COLD FRONT, SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR
HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 78 70 78 / 30 10 10 10
MARATHON 69 77 70 79 / 30 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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