948
FXUS62 KKEY 160310
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A CHANCE OF RAIN (AROUND 30%) WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PIVOTS IN ACROSS THE AREA.
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
MILD, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 939 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS LAST NIGHT ENTRENCHED OVER THE DISTANT STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AT THIS LATE MONDAY EVENING HOUR. A STRONG, 1033 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS IN ITS WAKE, WITH THE RESULTING GRADIENT FLOW
SUPPORTING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS. RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE
ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA, CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURE AND WHERE THE BEST SPEED CONVERGENCE
RESIDES.
OVERNIGHT, POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILTER
SLOWLY INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES WILL NOT LIKELY OBSERVED MEASURABLE
RAINFALL, BUT THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
WARRANTS KEEPING THE INHERITED LOW-END CHANCE (AROUND 30%) FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD. NO CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED EVENING
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 939 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGE, FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A SECOND, WEAKER FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 939 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
DESPITE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
16/24Z, BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED TO MENTION OF VCSH AT MTH FOR NOW ALONG WITH A VERY
SHORT-TERM TEMPO, AND THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED AT THE NEXT FULL,
ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE AT 16/06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 68 78 70 / 20 30 10 10
MARATHON 76 69 77 70 / 20 30 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....DDR
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