504
FXUS62 KKEY 161024
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
524 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS DRIER
AIR SETTLES IN.
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
MILD, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN BUSY TRACKING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT. EARLIER THIS
EVENING, A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS SKIRTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE AUTOMATED OBSERVATION SITE AT MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A TRACE OF RAIN JUST BEFORE 10 PM,
BUT MRMS SUGGESTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FELL ALONG SOME ISLAND
COMMUNITIES. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ONLY A FEW MILES
OFFSHORE OF THE MIDDLE KEYS, BUT IT IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL WITH LAND
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH, AND MARINE
PLATFORMS REPORTING GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH (OR NEAR 27 KNOTS).
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH YESTERDAY, AND THIS HAS PLAYED A KEY ROLE
IN THE LINGERING SHOWERS. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS 24 HOURS AGO WERE IN
THE LOWER 70S WHEREAS NOW THEY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S. WHILE NOT
SUBSTANTIAL, IT DOES INDICATE THAT THE DRIER AIR IS FINALLY
FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE (10%) OF RAIN FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIGHT
SHOWERS NEARBY, BUT THE DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVING IN NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL HELP TO BRING THESE CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO BY THE
AFTERNOON.
MEAN LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE CURRENT TROUGHING LIFTS AWAY. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD A FEW DEGREES. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH EITHER ON FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY, BUT WHAT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE AS TO WHAT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LOOK LIKE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA COURTESY OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE, BUT THE NBM HAS SHOWN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN SINGLE DIGIT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WHAT THIS DOES TELL
US IS THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, SO THE
CALMER WEATHER THAT WE SEE OVER THE MIDWEEK WON’T HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND
CHANGE WILL COME DOWN THE PIPELINE EVENTUALLY. IT’S JUST A MATTER
OF WHEN THE CHANGE COMES, AND THAT SHOULD BECOME CLEARER OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A SECOND, WEAKER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, LOW COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS NEAR
THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS GRADUALLY DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1968, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 60F
WAS LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR KEY WEST DATES
BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 70 80 72 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 76 70 79 72 / 10 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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