884
FXUS62 KKEY 161527
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WATERS FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
MILD, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER OVER
MONDAY MORNING HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS CUBA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN
AREA OF LIFT AND CONVERGENCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN, WE HAVE BEEN
ENJOYING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ALBEIT STILL ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE RELAXED
WHILE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REEF, WE CONTINUE TO SEE FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE KEYS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN FINALLY RELAX.
HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTIONS OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS WE SHOULD
BE IN THE CLEAR AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, RIDGE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FOR NOW. AS SUCH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AS A QUICK PREVIEW, A DEEP TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND INTO WESTERN MEXICO. OVER THE COMING DAYS THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF AND BEGIN DEVELOPING A SURFACE
LOW SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE SLACKENED
SUCH THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER,
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED AND
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. MEANWHILE, FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WATERS, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN BUSY TRACKING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT. EARLIER THIS
EVENING, A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS SKIRTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE AUTOMATED OBSERVATION SITE AT MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A TRACE OF RAIN JUST BEFORE 10 PM,
BUT MRMS SUGGESTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FELL ALONG SOME ISLAND
COMMUNITIES. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ONLY A FEW MILES
OFFSHORE OF THE MIDDLE KEYS, BUT IT IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL WITH LAND
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH, AND MARINE
PLATFORMS REPORTING GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH (OR NEAR 27 KNOTS).
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH YESTERDAY, AND THIS HAS PLAYED A KEY ROLE
IN THE LINGERING SHOWERS. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS 24 HOURS AGO WERE IN
THE LOWER 70S WHEREAS NOW THEY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S. WHILE NOT
SUBSTANTIAL, IT DOES INDICATE THAT THE DRIER AIR IS FINALLY
FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE (10%) OF RAIN FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIGHT
SHOWERS NEARBY, BUT THE DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVING IN NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL HELP TO BRING THESE CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO BY THE
AFTERNOON.
MEAN LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE CURRENT TROUGHING LIFTS AWAY. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD A FEW DEGREES. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH EITHER ON FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY, BUT WHAT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE AS TO WHAT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LOOK LIKE. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA COURTESY OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE, BUT THE NBM HAS SHOWN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN SINGLE DIGIT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WHAT THIS DOES TELL
US IS THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, SO THE
CALMER WEATHER THAT WE SEE OVER THE MIDWEEK WON’T HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND
CHANGE WILL COME DOWN THE PIPELINE EVENTUALLY. IT’S JUST A MATTER
OF WHEN THE CHANGE COMES, AND THAT SHOULD BECOME CLEARER OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 70 80 72 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 76 70 79 72 / 10 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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