306
FXUS62 KKEY 170345
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.
-MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MODESTLY INCREASE BY THURSDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
-THE NEXT, WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS ON
FRIDAY, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SURFACE PLACES WHAT WAS ONCE A COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS NOW STALLED AS A
STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF THE BAHAMIAN ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS, THIS
SUPPORTS NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES IN THE SLOW PROCESS OF VEERING TO
THE EAST. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING CONDUCTED AT KEY SAMPLED A
MOIST, YET GENERALLY STABLE LAYER UP TO AROUND THE 700 MB ISOBARIC
SURFACE, WITH EXTREMELY DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR JUST ABOVE.
OVERNIGHT, A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE
EAST, COUPLED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER KEYS. ELECTED TO ADD DIME POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SCENARIO AS PART OF THE EVENING UPDATE PACKAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR STEADY
OVERNIGHT NEAR 70F, WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. NO
OTHER CHANGES PROPOSED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT THIS LATE EVENING HOUR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAITS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSTED FOR HAWK
CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AS WELL. FROM SYNOPSIS,
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES, WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZES ACROSS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. A SECOND, WEAKER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MODESTLY
FRESHENED BREEZES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MTH, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR-SURFACE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS BECOMING LESS FREQUENT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ042>044-
052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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