708
FXUS62 KKEY 170951
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
451 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
-MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
MODESTLY INCREASE BY THURSDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
-THE NEXT, WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS ON
FRIDAY, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIETER MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO IS CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE KEYS AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. KBYX RADAR IS
FREE OF PRECIPITABLE ECHOES WHILE GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES STILL PERSIST ALONG OUR REEF OBSERVATION
STATIONS BUT ARE A KNOT OR TWO SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING'S
READINGS. TEMPERATURES ON LAND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE
LOWER KEYS AND LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER KEYS WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S PREVAIL.
NOT TOO MUCH WILL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP WINDS IN
SOMEWHAT OF A HOLDING PATTERN TODAY. LAST NIGHT'S KKEY 00Z BALLOON
LAUNCH NOTED A FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE BELOW AN INVERSION LOCATED
JUST BELOW 700 MB. DESPITE THAT MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE,
SHALLOW SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY PRESENT SUGGESTING
THAT DIME POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO COVER TODAY'S FORECAST.
TONIGHT, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BRIEF SURGE IN
WINDS AS THE HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. WHILE IT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME INTENSITY AS
PREVIOUS DAYS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DEEP
GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
FRESH WINDS BECOME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SLACKEN AND FIND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR A DAY OR SO OF A
MORE MILD AND MOIST PATTERN ELEVATING RAIN CHANCES FOR A COUPLE
PERIODS.
THE EXITING HIGH IS MAKING WAY FOR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BLOWING
IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH ITS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK, WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTH
AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES GIVING SOME RELIEF TO THE
MORE RECENT MILD CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN CHANGES QUICKLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND PROMOTES BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OF COURSE AN EARLY SOLUTION, SO STAY TUNED TO
SEE HOW THIS FORECAST EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND DEEP GULF WATERS,
AS WELL AS ALL OTHER COASTAL WATERS FOR INCREASING WINDS. FROM
SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES TODAY. AS THIS
HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY,
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A SECOND,
WEAKER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. OPTING TO KEEP TAFS DRY DUE TO THE LOW, NEAR 10 PERCENT,
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR EITHER TERMINAL. GENERALLY EAST SURFACE WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME NEAR 23Z WHERE GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO CROSSWIND
CONCERNS DUE TO THE PREVAILING EASTERLY DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1968, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51F WAS
LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR KEY WEST DATES BACK
TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 72 82 73 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 79 72 80 73 / 10 10 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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