066
FXUS62 KKEY 171528
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
-MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
MODESTLY INCREASE BY THURSDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
-THE NEXT, WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS ON
FRIDAY, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING. RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM KBYX SHOW VERY FEW METEOROLOGICAL
ECHOES, THOUGH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WATER APPEAR DEEP
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A TRACE OF RAINFALL. GOES EAST SATELLITE
RETURNS SHOW SHALLOW, SHORT LIVED LAYERS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE KEYS ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS LINGERING IN THE UPPER 60S. THESE
OBSERVATIONS WERE CORROBORATED BY THE MORNING 12Z SOUNDING. ONCE
AGAIN, THE SOUNDING PASSED THROUGH AN INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. DRY AIR WAS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, AND
THE PWAT WAS SAMPLED AT JUST ABOVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
DAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS. WHILE BREEZES
SLACKENED FROM FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZES, AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST TODAY THUS WAS NOT CHANGED,
BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING WINDS FOR AN INCREASE THAT MAY REQUIRE
AN UPDATE.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT CULPRIT FOR NOTABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KEYS IS ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF FROM OVER TEXAS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN DOES
NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST STRONG BREEZES OVER THE WATERS. CHECK BACK
LATER FOR MORE INFORMATION!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AS
WELL AS ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR INCREASING WINDS. FLORIDA BAY IS
THE EXCEPTION. NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS HIGH
STARTS TO SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON,
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A SECOND,
WEAKER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. MULTIPLE LINES ARE PRESENT FOR CHANGES IN WIND SPEED.
GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. CROSSWINDS ARE NOT A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN EASTERLY. EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
NOT TOO MUCH WILL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP WINDS IN
SOMEWHAT OF A HOLDING PATTERN TODAY. LAST NIGHT'S KKEY 00Z BALLOON
LAUNCH NOTED A FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE BELOW AN INVERSION LOCATED
JUST BELOW 700 MB. DESPITE THAT MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE,
SHALLOW SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY PRESENT SUGGESTING THAT
DIME POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO COVER TODAY'S FORECAST.
TONIGHT, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BRIEF SURGE IN
WINDS AS THE HIGH SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. WHILE IT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE THE SAME INTENSITY AS
PREVIOUS DAYS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DEEP
GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
FRESH WINDS BECOME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SLACKEN AND FIND A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR A DAY OR SO OF A
MORE MILD AND MOIST PATTERN ELEVATING RAIN CHANCES FOR A COUPLE
PERIODS.
THE EXITING HIGH IS MAKING WAY FOR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BLOWING
IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH ITS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK, WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTH
AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES GIVING SOME RELIEF TO THE
MORE RECENT MILD CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN CHANGES QUICKLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND PROMOTES BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OF COURSE AN EARLY SOLUTION, SO STAY TUNED TO
SEE HOW THIS FORECAST EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1968, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51F WAS
LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR KEY WEST DATES BACK
TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 72 82 73 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 79 72 80 73 / 10 10 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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