296
FXUS62 KKEY 180337
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSTED FOR HAWK
CHANNEL, THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
-MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
MODESTLY INCREASE BY THURSDAY, WITH THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-OUTSIDE OF MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES, MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A DRY-ADIABATICALLY, WELL
MIXED LAYER EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND THE 925 MB LEVEL,
WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES ABOVE. KBYX AND KAMX DOPPLER
RADARS HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY MEANINGFUL METEOROLOGICAL ECHOES ALL
EVENING. WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND, A MESOSCALE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN 1-3 KFT, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH VEERING TO SPARK
OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DIME POPS
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE ON THE GENEROUS SIDE. NO CHANGES PROPOSED
OR NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FIRST PERIOD FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE
ZONES. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK,
AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 82 73 81 / 20 30 30 20
MARATHON 72 80 73 80 / 10 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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