993
FXUS62 KKEY 181814
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
114 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND SLACKEN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN AND NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
-LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIR MASS COULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG FOR THE
ISLAND CHAIN BUT MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN.
-RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING, WITH THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-OUTSIDE OF MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES, MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 114 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
BREEZES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REEF HAVE SLACKENED THIS AFTERNOON
AS EXPECTED. SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA THIS HOUR. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLACKEN WHILE VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
COULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE GULF AND BAYSIDE
WATERS. THIS WOULD POTENTIAL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDOW FOR FOG WOULD
BE SMALL (LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING), AS BREEZES WILL CLOCK
AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND BREEZES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AT MODERATE THIS GO-AROUND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A STRONG HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND WILL
PROMOTE A STRONGER FRESHENING OF BREEZES. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO STAY TUNE FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EVENING. WATCHING FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY
SLIDE TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A SCT010-015 FOR BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH MTH HAVING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 448 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX
RADAR IS ONCE AGAIN FREE OF PRECIPITABLE ECHOES IN OUR AREA.
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX BETWEEN PATCHES
OF WESTERLY MOVING FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN STRAITS AND
HIGH CIRRUS STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF. MODERATE EASTERLY
BREEZES PERSIST ALONG THE REEF HAVING CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AROUND THIS TIME AND RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.
SOME CHANGE IN PATTERN IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST US INTO THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND START LOSING ITS GRIP ON
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY. AS A RESULT, EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WHILE BREEZES WILL BE TURNING TO MORE MOIST SURFACE WIND, A LARGE
POCKET OF DRY AIR STILL EXITS IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL JUST
ABOVE THE INVERSION OBSERVED IN OUR 00Z KKEY BALLOON SOUNDING LAST
NIGHT. THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY.
TONIGHT COULD GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE LOWER TO MID
LEVEL PROFILE MOISTENS UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT (FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MODESTLY UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY. THAT BEING SAID, FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH NO APPARENT
SOURCES OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. CAMS DO SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY FORM DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS, SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST IN CASE.
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY. BREEZES WILL CLOCK ALL
THE WAY BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH, BUT DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CONUS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WINDY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SO STAY TUNED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 73 80 69 78 / 30 20 0 10
MARATHON 73 81 69 79 / 20 10 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page