107
FXUS62 KKEY 200333
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM MUGGY AND DAMP CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING TO LESS HUMID AND BREEZIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
-AN EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING AREA OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND SPORTY
SEAS NEXT WEEK, LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST
KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES THIS EVENING, CREATING RATHER MUGGY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS. GENTLE MOSTLY NORTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DATA FROM THE KEY WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATED A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR PRESENT ABOVE A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AMIDST
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA, AND THE WEAK FRONT TO OUR NORTH HAS
ESSENTIALLY LOST ALL UPPER-AIR SUPPORT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MAKING IT TO THE
KEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD INCREASE JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
BEFORE RELAXING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS ZONES. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY, BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BRIEF SURGE OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, PEAKING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS EVE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
THROUGH 20/24Z, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EYW AND MTH AFTER
20/09Z, RESULTING IN A SURGE OF NORTHERLY BREEZES AND CROSSWINDS
PEAKING NEAR 15 KNOTS BETWEEN ABOUT 20/10Z AND 20/14Z.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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