262
FXUS62 KKEY 021751
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1251 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
-COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS! MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER AND LOWER KEYS WHERE WIND WENT CALM AND LOWER 60S FOR THE
MIDDLE KEYS.
-A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT, AT LEAST IN
RELATION TO DAYTIME HIGHS, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR
70 DEGREES AND LOWER 70S FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST AT
EYW, BUT WILL SLACKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUD BASES WILL STAY
ABOVE FL030, IF PRESENT, THROUGH THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE FIRST FRIDAY OF THE YEAR OPENED WITH A NEARLY CLEAR SKY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT SURGED SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN US IS STILL IN PLACE, AND COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ACROSS
THE KEYS, TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE MEASURED AT THE KKEY OFFICE WAS 52 F THIS MORNING.
BREEZES ALONG THE REEF ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OFF THE UPPER KEYS. NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BASED
ON THE MORNING 12Z SOUNDING EITHER. MULTIPLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OF CLOUD COVER, AND THE LACK OF STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION BASED ON WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS MEANS DECKS OF
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM. SAMPLED PRECIPITABLE WATER
WAS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. CONSIDERING
THE LOWER TEMPERATURES, WEAK BREEZES, AND LACK OF METEOROLOGICAL
OBJECTS ON THE KBYX RADAR, WE ARE EXPECTING A VERY UNEVENTFUL DAY
FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE KEYS.
UPSTREAM, A COUPLE OF FEATURES HIGHLIGHT HOW THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL HELP PUSH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF INTO THE ATLANTIC. UNTIL THEN, THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
KEYS. WINDS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, MEANING
THE LARGER ISLANDS WILL BE ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE 50S. SOME
ISLANDS MAY GET INTO THE LOWER 50S, SO MAKE SURE TO HAVE
ADDITIONAL LAYERS ON HAND!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON, BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A RETURN OF NORTHERLY BREEZES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST BREEZES INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING
MAINLY EASTERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1898, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 47F WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
OVERHEAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE REBOUNDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE
SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO
RADIATE EACH NIGHT. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SOME OF THE LARGER ISLANDS OF
THE KEYS, INCLUDING THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE, ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO COOL DOWN TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IF THE WIND GOES COMPLETELY CALM FOR A
FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS WON'T START TO
INCREASE UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES RISE
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL IS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE KEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A SUBTLE FRONT TO PRESS THROUGH
THE KEYS SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS A SLOW DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS THE SAME
THOUGH IN TERMS OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY RESULT IN A
WIND SHIFT RATHER THAN A DIP IN DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE
WILL TRY AND POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (10%) RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVING NATURE
OF THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO NIL
RAIN CHANCES.
IF YOU ARE WONDERING WHEN THINGS MIGHT START TO REALLY WARM UP, A
SNEAK PEAK AT THE END TO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF 2026 SHOWS HINTS
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR APPROXIMATELY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EARLY SIGNS SHOW
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 70S TO POTENTIALLY 80 DEGREES
AND RISING HUMIDITY. STAY TUNED!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 70 62 73 67 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 69 61 72 64 / 0 0 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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