993
FXUS62 KKEY 030855
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
355 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-VEERING BREEZES WILL BRING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS TRENDING TOWARDS THE MID 70S.
-NEAR- NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
-A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING A
BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS.
-TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT WORK
WEEK, ALONG WITH NEAR- NIL RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
TONIGHT WAS A TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE OF A RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
COUPLED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DETECTED BY AVAILABLE GOES-19
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOST OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION FROM
THE SURFACE OF THE LAND MASSES EASILY ESCAPED THE TROPOSPHERE,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE FOR THE FAVORED INTERIOR SPOTS OF
THE LARGER ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN BIG PINE KEY, TO THE MID 60S SOME OF THE LESS SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. KBYX IS OF COURSE VOID OF ANY METEOROLOGICAL ECHO
RETURNS AT THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOUR WITH THIS SETUP.
A RATHER ROUTINE FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD, AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GULF COASTLINE DIVES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR DECENT LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT, COUPLED WITH
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH
THE ISLAND CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY VEERING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT COOL ADVECTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK AROUND TO THE EAST, THEN
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS IT DOES SO, SUPPORTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-NIL RAIN CHANCES. FOR THOSE
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER BLAST OF WINTER IN EARLY 2026, GLOBAL
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT
SHOT AT BELOW NUMBER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS IS
UNFORTUNATELY BEYOND THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BREEZES TODAY, GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST BY TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
MARINE ZONES LATE SUNDAY, ALLOWING BREEZES TO CLOCK AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST, THEN QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL TRANSIENT CLOUD COVER ABOVE FL030.
BREEZES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2017, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 88F WAS
RECORDED AT MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT MARATHON. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 64 79 67 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 72 62 76 66 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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