100
FXUS62 KKEY 040331
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-VEERING BREEZES WILL BRING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS TRENDING TOWARDS THE MID 70S.
-NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
-A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE KEYS LATE SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS.
-TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT WORK
WEEK, ALONG WITH NEAR-NIL RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 848 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT, A MODEST SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A SURPRISINGLY DEEP
MIXED LAYER WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 850
MB. THE WEAK FLOW AND SIZABLE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAS HELPED TO
KEEP SKIES VIRTUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE IS CONTRIBUTING TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN INTERIOR AND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. WHILE MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, THE BIG PINE RAWS
HAS ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 60. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT MORE
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS BROADLY IN THE LOWER 60S
APPEAR JUSTIFIED. HOWEVER, EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE LACK OF MOISTURE, WEAK FLOW, AND STRONG INHIBITION WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATES SOME LOW LEVEL VEERING SETTING UP, THEY ALSO DO NOT
INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE PILING UP UNDER THE
INVERSION. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 848 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
A WEAK HIGH ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT BREEZES TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST. EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY ON OUR GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 848 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLIES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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