187
FXUS62 KKEY 040858
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
358 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE KEYS LATE TODAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS.
-TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
-RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR-NIL AFTER SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
WHERE THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME SIGNS OF LOCALLY-GENERATED
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES AT THIS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HOUR, THE IMPACTS OF THIS RADIATIONAL FORCING ARE
QUITE LESS NOTICEABLE THAN THEY WERE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. CURRENT LAND-BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE INTERIOR, SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF BIG PINE, TO AROUND 70 IN MOST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS.
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR BASED ON AVAILABLE GOES-19 SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WITH KBYX VOID OF ANY METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS.
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A WELL-MIXED, DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 940 MB, A SEMI-STABLE
LAYER JUST ABOVE, AND THEN A SERIES OF THERMAL INVERSIONS
EXTENDING FROM THE 875 MB ISOBARIC SURFACE THROUGH THE DEPTHS OF
THE LOWER- TROPOSPHERE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED FALLING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES IN
THE MID- TO UPPER- LEVELS. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA
FIRST COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND
SOUTHWARD TODAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HIGHLIGHT A WINDOW OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT, BUT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THIS WEAKLY-BAROCOLINIC
SETUP, LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO PRECEDE THE
MOISTENING. WITH THAT SAID, A BROKEN, DECAYING LINE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, AND THUS DIME POPS ARE RETAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FULL-FORECAST ITERATION.
FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BARELY BE NOTICEABLE FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, QUICKLY
PUSHING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COASTLINE FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
COUPLED WITH A BUILDING UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE, BECOMING
ALMOST SPRING- LIKE. WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS AND
GENERALLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN WINDS, CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
APPEAR NEAR-NIL FOR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER BLAST OF "FLORIDA WINTER", THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL-TO-MODEL, RUN-TO-RUN, AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBER/MEAN SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS
SOMETIME AFTER NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, FOR THOSE FROM OUT OF
TOWN. AS WELL AS THE LOCAL FANS OF THE WARM WEATHER, ENJOY THE
BREAK FROM "OLD MAN WINTER".
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY,
ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES TO CLOCK AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST, THEN QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY (10%
CHANCE) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH COULD
PRODUCE BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY, BUT THESE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND RANDOM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1918, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 57F
AND THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 46F WERE RECORDED AT KEY
WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 65 78 67 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 72 64 75 66 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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