106
FXUS62 KKEY 041536
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE KEYS LATE TODAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS.
-TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
-RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR-NIL AFTER SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE MAIN STORY THIS MORNING IS A WEAK FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORT
MYERS AREA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, KBYX
RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE ALL MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MOVING STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. THIS LINE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING
STRENGTH FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER, THE LAST
FEW RADAR SCANS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AND ALSO
DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. IN ADDITION, A BOUNDARY MOVED
THROUGH THE KEYS THIS MORNING WHICH STARTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE CHAIN AND IS
CURRENTLY JUST OUTSIDE OF KEY WEST. THE BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS HAS BEEN CAUSING A RATHER
CHAOTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE KEYS WITH MARINE PLATFORMS
SURROUNDING THE KEYS OBSERVING WEST BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS AT SAND
KEY TO NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT AND AMERICAN SHOAL LIGHT AS WELL AS HARBOR KEY BANK LIGHT
AND LONG KEY. CARYSFORT REEF HAS BEEN BLOWING NEAR 15 KNOTS MUCH
OF THE MORNING WITH THE DIRECTION BEING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND
ALLIGATOR HAS BEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS
DRY AIR ABOVE 750 MB WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER FROM 800 TO 750 MB
WITH MORE POCKETS OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED
WAS 1.11 INCHES WHICH HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN COMPARED
TO JUST THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS RIGHT AT THE MEDIAN FOR
THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE DOES SHOW A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SHOWERS
WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE FROM SOUTHWEST AT 1000 FT TO WEST AT
3000 FT. BASED ON THE ABOVE, THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY
HELP TO ERADICATE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR REGIME WITH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ON RADAR DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE ISLAND
CHAIN. HOWEVER, WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO,
THEREFORE, SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH NO CHANGES
ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MAY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH, DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF
WILL HOLD TOGETHER, OPTED TO TAKE VCSH OUT OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND DECREASING TO 2 TO 6 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2026
WHERE THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME SIGNS OF LOCALLY-GENERATED
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES AT THIS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HOUR, THE IMPACTS OF THIS RADIATIONAL FORCING ARE
QUITE LESS NOTICEABLE THAN THEY WERE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. CURRENT LAND- BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE INTERIOR, SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF BIG PINE, TO AROUND 70 IN MOST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS.
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR BASED ON AVAILABLE GOES-19 SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WITH KBYX VOID OF ANY METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS.
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A WELL-MIXED, DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 940 MB, A SEMI-STABLE
LAYER JUST ABOVE, AND THEN A SERIES OF THERMAL INVERSIONS
EXTENDING FROM THE 875 MB ISOBARIC SURFACE THROUGH THE DEPTHS OF
THE LOWER- TROPOSPHERE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED FALLING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES IN
THE MID- TO UPPER- LEVELS. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA
FIRST COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND
SOUTHWARD TODAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HIGHLIGHT A WINDOW OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT, BUT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THIS WEAKLY-BAROCOLINIC
SETUP, LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO PRECEDE THE
MOISTENING. WITH THAT SAID, A BROKEN, DECAYING LINE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, AND THUS DIME POPS ARE RETAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FULL-FORECAST ITERATION.
FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BARELY BE NOTICEABLE FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, QUICKLY
PUSHING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COASTLINE FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
COUPLED WITH A BUILDING UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE, BECOMING
ALMOST SPRING- LIKE. WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS AND
GENERALLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN WINDS, CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
APPEAR NEAR-NIL FOR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER BLAST OF "FLORIDA WINTER", THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL-TO-MODEL, RUN-TO-RUN, AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBER/MEAN SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS
SOMETIME AFTER NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, FOR THOSE FROM OUT OF
TOWN. AS WELL AS THE LOCAL FANS OF THE WARM WEATHER, ENJOY THE
BREAK FROM "OLD MAN WINTER".
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY,
ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES TO CLOCK AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST, THEN QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1918, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
57F AND THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 46F WERE RECORDED AT
KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 67 76 68 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 75 66 76 67 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page