187
FXUS62 KKEY 050858
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
358 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK.
-TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE KEYS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT LIMPED
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING NOW TO THE SOUTH,
GENERALLY DRAPED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AVAILABLE LAND-BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLIGHTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH THE FRONTAL
FEATURE REALLY ONLY DISCERNIBLE VIA A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLIES
BEHIND THE FRONT. GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS
MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AT THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOUR, WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DETECTED BY
AVAILABLE LOCAL DOPPLER RADARS. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAS
PREVENTED ANY SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
A RATHER STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH A SECONDARY HIGH
SUPPORTING MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FURTHER ALOFT, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY DRY AND
GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SLIGHT
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES AT BEST FOR ANY GIVEN FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER AND MEAN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SOMETIME AT THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS EXPECTED THIS FAR
OUT, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING A STRONGER AND DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME
CLOSER TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1906, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.60" WAS RECORDED
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 68 77 68 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 76 67 76 67 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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