968
FXUS62 KKEY 051838
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
138 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK.
-TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE KEYS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS DRY AIR REMAINS
DOMINANT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST TO
EAST BETWEEN 3 TO 8 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THIS MORNING. THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE WITH NORTHWESTERLIES PREVAILING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE WITH THIS
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE KEYS. THIS IS PROMOTING
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MARINE PLATFORMS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. A DECENT DENSE FOG EVENT IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GOES 19 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
FOG BEGINNING TO GET MIXED OUT AS THE SUN GETS HIGHER IN THE SKY.
HOWEVER, FOR THE KEYS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING WITH ANY
CLOUDS REMAINING JUST BEYOND THE REEF AND ACROSS THE STRAITS. KBYX
RADAR ALSO DETECTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STRAITS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CLOUD COVER. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWERS DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY PROFILE WITH SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS LAYER
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 750 MB. THIS LAYER IS MOST
LIKELY DEEPER ACROSS THE STRAITS WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.06 INCHES
WHICH IS A LITTLE BELOW THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. MOST OF THE
INGREDIENTS NEEDED TO GENERATE SHOWERS ARE LACKING. THE EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE STRAITS WHERE THERE ARE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND
OTHER MESOSCALE PROCESSES ONGOING WHICH ARE HELPING TO INSTIGATE
THE SHOWERS. OTHER THAN THAT, NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. ENJOY THE FIRST MONDAY OF 2026!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
FRESHEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1906, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.60" WAS
RECORDED RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT LIMPED
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING NOW TO THE SOUTH,
GENERALLY DRAPED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AVAILABLE LAND- BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLIGHTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH THE FRONTAL
FEATURE REALLY ONLY DISCERNIBLE VIA A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLIES
BEHIND THE FRONT. GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS
MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT
MARINE ZONES AT THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOUR, WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DETECTED BY AVAILABLE
LOCAL DOPPLER RADARS. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAS PREVENTED
ANY SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
A RATHER STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH A SECONDARY HIGH
SUPPORTING MODESTLY FRESHENED BREEZES VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FURTHER ALOFT, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY DRY AND
GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SLIGHT
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES AT BEST FOR ANY GIVEN FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER AND MEAN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SOMETIME AT THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS EXPECTED THIS FAR
OUT, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING A STRONGER AND DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 77 68 77 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 67 76 67 77 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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