135
FXUS62 KKEY 061528
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK.
-TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS SHOW A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE STRADDLES
ACROSS THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE KEYS REMAIN
ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WITH NORTHWESTERLIES
PREVAILING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALSO INDICATES A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND BERMUDA WITH THE KEYS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS IS
PROMOTING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MARINE
PLATFORM OBSERVATION SITES SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. A RATHER
INTERESTING SETUP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. KBYX RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA. USING VARIOUS DIFFERENT TOOLS TO INVESTIGATE FURTHER SUCH AS
THE GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCT, IT SHOWS AN
INCREASED AREA OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1 INCH WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA IS GENERALLY 0.8-0.9 INCHES. ALSO, USING SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
IT APPEARS THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATING
WESTWARD AS THERE WAS A KINK TO THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST..
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE PROFILE.
THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WHERE SHALLOW MOISTURE
EXISTS TO AROUND 875 MB. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED IS LOWER THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY BEING MEASURED AT 0.89 INCHES. THIS IS CLOSE
TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE IS CHAOTIC
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 1000 FT BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN
2000 TO 3000 FT. THE ONLY CATALYST FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A
LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, A SUBTLE INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE MIGHT TOUCH
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE KEYS.
DUE TO THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE KEYS, OPTED TO NOT UPDATE THE FORECAST AS ANY
CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY AT EYW. KBYX RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND LOW
CLOUD COVER WITH BASES AROUND FL025 IN THE VICINITY OF THE MTH
TERMINAL. THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST BETWEEN 2 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
A RATHER MUNDANE AND STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOUR. THE 00Z MONDAY
EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A WELL- MIXED, NEUTRALLY BUOYANT
LAYER UP TO AROUND THE 900 MB ISOBARIC LEVEL, WITH GENERALLY
THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE. KBYX RADAR HAS
DETECTED A FEW ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN OVERNIGHT, DRIVEN BY A WEAK (AND SOMEWHAT RARE) LAND BREEZE
PUSHING OFF THE KEYS AND INTO HAWK CHANNEL. RELATIVE TO MOST OF
THE WEEK, SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEW POINTS COUPLED WITH WINDS UP A FEW
KNOTS HAS SUPPORTED MUCH LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT MOST ISLAND
COMMUNITIES.
COMPOSITE TROPOSPHERIC ANALYSIS PLACES A STRONG MID- LEVEL RIDGE
BRIDGING THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND BERMUDA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE ONLY CHANGE TO
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BEING DISCERNIBLE BY MODESTLY FRESHENED AND
VEERED BREEZES TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING NEWLY EXPERIMENTAL AI PREDICTORS, CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUPPORT THAT A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THIS SCENARIO, THE LOCAL
IMPACTS REMAIN TO BE RESOLVED. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL-
TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL EXPERTISE SUGGESTS THAT
THESE FRONTS TEND TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND LATER THAN MOST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD INITIALLY SUGGEST, AND OUR LOCAL
GRIDDED PRODUCTS REFLECT THIS. SHOULD THIS VALIDATE, TIMING FOR
THE FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY, WITH A
WINDOW OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL FORECAST
PERIODS. STAY TUNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2010, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
57F AND 58F WERE RECORDED AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON, RESPECTIVELY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872, AND
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 68 78 69 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 77 67 77 69 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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