111
FXUS62 KKEY 070907
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
407 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS THIS
MORNING.
-TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
A MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AS WE REMAIN
UNDER THE EFFECTS OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SKIRTING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, PLUS CONVERGENCE HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
A NARROW FINGER OF SHOWERS HAS MANAGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
KEYS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE LARGER ISLANDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN EVEN FURTHER, DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY, THE KEYS WILL SIT UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK AND
ALLOW FOR A THERMAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAINLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BUT THEN WEAKLY SURGE TONIGHT. BY
THURSDAY A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN AND SHARPEN IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL REINFORCE OUR LOW LEVEL RIDGE AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL FRESHENING AND SHIFTING OF WINDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH AN ATTENDENT SURFACE FEATURE INITIALLY STRENGTHENING
AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FORM THE NORTHEAST U.S.
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF.
THIS IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDING AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STAYING WELL TO OUR NORTH,
THERE REMAINS SOME UNKNOWNS WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE FRONT
WILL BE AND WHEN WILL IT ARRIVE. CURRENT TIMING HAS IT AT LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF SAID FRONT IS
ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY WEAKER (DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION).
FOR NOW, MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
CLICK UP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SLIGHTLY BETTER. CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE BEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEREAFTER, QUESTIONS
REMAIN AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
IF THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE AND AT TIMES VARIABLE BREEZES WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW WHERE BREEZES MAY
WEAKLY SURGE AS THEY COME OFF THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING. THAT
BEING SAID, BREEZES LOOK TO STAY GENERALLY AROUND GENTLE. BREEZES
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SURGING TONIGHT WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES EXPECTED. THEREAFTER, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. STILL ANTICIPATING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE, AT LEAST FRESH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TOWARDS THE EAST AND
GENERALLY REMAIN AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 68 80 71 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 79 70 80 71 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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