072
FXUS62 KKEY 080321
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
-TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
THIS RIDGE. WESTERLY FLOW IS STILL PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES, THOUGH, IT IS A BIT MORE MERIDIONAL THAN ZONAL WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING WEST INTO THE KEYS AND THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS IS PROMOTING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AT MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. GOES 19 TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOW PWAT VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 0.6 INCHES ACROSS THE SE GULF TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE ALL EVENING
WITH SHOWERS DETECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STRAITS. GOES 19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGHOUT THE
KEYS WITH THE CLOUD COVER MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 0.74 INCHES WHICH
IS BETWEEN THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND
PROFILE IS NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 3000 FT. THE ONLY
CATALYSTS FOR SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CHAIN DUE TO RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OR MESOSCALE
PROCESSES. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE GULF BASIN
WILL BECOME REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST, ALLOWING BREEZES TO FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WHERE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS LOOKING TO BE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
FRESHENING NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WAKE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 1 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY WHILE ALSO
INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS. BREEZES FURTHER SHIFT TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 68 80 71 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 79 70 80 71 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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