930
FXUS62 KKEY 080933
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
433 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MAY
AT TIMES CLIP THE ISLAND CHAIN.
-TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, THESE SHOWERS
HAVE APPROACHED THE ISLAND CHAIN BUT HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST
SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLY FALLING ACROSS A FEW OF THE ISLAND
COMMUNITIES. MEANWHILE, LOW RIDGE RIDGE HAS CONSOLIDATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN
OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE MOSTLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BUT MAY AT TIMES BUTT UP
AGAINST THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES
OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER. ONCE THIS PLUME PIVOTS OUT OF THE AREA,
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN AND RETURN POPS TO NEAR NIL, ROUGHLY
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL GET SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BUNCH UP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY AND BRING BACK
DIME POPS TO THE ISLAND CHAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AS WELL AS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES, WINDS WILL FRESHEN
IN ITS WAKE. MODELS ARE HONING ON IN THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A MORE ACTIVE THAN USUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE KEYS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ON THE COLD FRONT, WHAT HAPPENS POST-FRONTAL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
A RIDGE HAS CONSOLIDATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR BREEZES TO FRESHEN TO GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE THIS
MORNING. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC, THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR MOST
OF OUR WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WHERE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES CAN BE
EXPECTED. BREEZES WILL BRIEFLY SLACKEN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WITH FRESHENING NORTHERLY
BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
WILL VEER EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. OPTING TO KEEP THE CURRENT TAF
PACKAGE DRY EVEN THOUGH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE SLIGHT, BETWEEN
10 AND 20 PERCENT, SO AMENDMENTS CAN BE MADE IF NECESSARY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1997, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83F WAS
LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 72 79 70 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 80 72 78 71 / 10 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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