799
FXUS62 KKEY 081605
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1105 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MAY
AT TIMES CLIP THE ISLAND CHAIN.
-TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE, COUPLED WITH A SURGE IN SHALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS, AS NEBULOUS RIDGING DOMINATES THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. A MINOR UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES WERE ADDED OWED TO RECENT
RADAR TRENDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES REQUIRED
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, THESE SHOWERS
HAVE APPROACHED THE ISLAND CHAIN BUT HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST
SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLY FALLING ACROSS A FEW OF THE ISLAND
COMMUNITIES. MEANWHILE, LOW RIDGE RIDGE HAS CONSOLIDATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN
OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE MOSTLY
ORIENTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BUT MAY AT TIMES BUTT UP
AGAINST THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES
OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER. ONCE THIS PLUME PIVOTS OUT OF THE AREA,
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN AND RETURN POPS TO NEAR NIL, ROUGHLY
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL GET SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BUNCH UP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY AND BRING BACK
DIME POPS TO THE ISLAND CHAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AS WELL AS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES, WINDS WILL FRESHEN
IN ITS WAKE. MODELS ARE HONING ON IN THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A MORE ACTIVE THAN USUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE KEYS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ON THE COLD FRONT, WHAT HAPPENS POST-FRONTAL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING BREEZES
TO FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA, WHERE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS LOOKING TO BE LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH FRESHENING NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WAKE.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER KEYS WARRANTS MENTION
OF VCSH FOR NOW AT EYW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 72 80 70 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 80 72 81 71 / 20 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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