087
FXUS62 KKEY 230916
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
416 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT RISING DEW POINTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
-A POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND
SUSTAINED STRONG TO NEAR GALE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
ANOTHER MILD MORNING IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
LAND BREEZE OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO KEEP SHOWERS
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS SEEN BY KAMX RADAR.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF
CUMULUS AND VERY LOW LEVEL CLOUD OVER PORTIONS OF THE KEYS. EARLY
RISERS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE KEYS MIGHT NOTICE VERY LOW CLOUDS AS
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE. MARINE
FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOUT ONE TO TWO DEGREES, SO
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO DEW DRENCHED VEHICLES THIS MORNING. BREEZES
ARE TRENDING DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS WELL. EVERY WEATHER
INDICATOR SUGGESTS PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY.
ENJOY THE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER, BECAUSE THE PARADIGM
IS ABOUT TO CHANGE.
FORECAST
WHILE HIGHS IN THE KEYS WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LARGE SWATHS OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE CONTINENT STARTING TODAY. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER FROM THIS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM; HOWEVER, SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE FUELING THE
WINTER STORM. BEHIND THE SNOWSTORM WILL BE A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
MASS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION; THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY. BREEZES WILL RAPIDLY
FRESHEN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FRONT WILL
REVOLVE AROUND WIND SPEEDS. MODELS UNDERESTIMATED THE WINDS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS, AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF
THE BREEZES WERE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING STRONG BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS NEARSHORE WATERS, BUT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CHECK BACK LATER FOR AN UPDATED FORECAST, AND TAKE
PRECAUTIONS FOR STRONG BREEZES.
THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK POST-FRONT ARE FOCUSED ON
TEMPERATURE. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
SUGGESTS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL STALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. OVER THE KEYS, STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WE COULD SEE DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE MORE EXTREME
MODEL RUNS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IS NOT
CERTAIN, EXACTLY HOW COOL AND DRY THE KEYS GET WILL DEPEND ON HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THE WINTER STORM AND ITS AFTERMATH. EITHER WAY,
BRACE FOR A STRETCH OF COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK
TROUGHING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO FUEL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STRAITS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY FRESHEN TO STRONG BREEZES.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY, BUT
EXACTLY HOW STRONG BREEZES GET IS UNCERTAIN. THE PERIOD OF PEAK
BREEZES WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG; BY TUESDAY EVENING, EXPECT BREEZES
TO SLACKEN TO FRESH TO STRONG.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
A SWATH OF STRATUS IN AND AROUND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS IS
RESULTING IN LIFR CEILINGS BASED AT 300 TO 500 FT. THIS STRATUS
HAS MOVED ACROSS MTH AND SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARDS EYW, AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 69 78 68 78 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 67 79 67 80 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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