014
FXUS62 KKEY 231748
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1248 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT RISING DEW POINTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
-A POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND
SUSTAINED STRONG TO NEAR GALE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING, AND LAV/NBH GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
OF LOW STRATUS (LIFR CEILINGS, BASED AT 004) IMPACTING MTH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY FOR EYW SO FOR
THE TIME BEING ONLY MTH INCLUDES THE CATEGORY CHANGE, THOUGH AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IT COULD BE INCLUDED IN LATER ISSUANCES.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHILE HIGHS IN THE KEYS WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LARGE SWATHS OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE CONTINENT STARTING TODAY. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER FROM THIS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM; HOWEVER, SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE FUELING THE
WINTER STORM. BEHIND THE SNOWSTORM WILL BE A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
MASS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION; THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY. BREEZES WILL RAPIDLY
FRESHEN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FRONT WILL
REVOLVE AROUND WIND SPEEDS. MODELS UNDERESTIMATED THE WINDS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS, AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF
THE BREEZES WERE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING STRONG BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS NEARSHORE WATERS, BUT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CHECK BACK LATER FOR AN UPDATED FORECAST, AND TAKE
PRECAUTIONS FOR STRONG BREEZES.
THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK POST-FRONT ARE FOCUSED ON
TEMPERATURE. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
SUGGESTS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL STALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. OVER THE KEYS, STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WE COULD SEE DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE MORE EXTREME
MODEL RUNS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IS NOT
CERTAIN, EXACTLY HOW COOL AND DRY THE KEYS GET WILL DEPEND ON HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THE WINTER STORM AND ITS AFTERMATH. EITHER WAY,
BRACE FOR A STRETCH OF COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
TROUGHING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO FUEL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STRAITS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY FRESHEN TO STRONG BREEZES.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY, BUT
EXACTLY HOW STRONG BREEZES GET IS UNCERTAIN. THE PERIOD OF PEAK
BREEZES WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG; BY TUESDAY EVENING, EXPECT BREEZES
TO SLACKEN TO FRESH TO STRONG.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page