995
FXUS62 KKEY 240257
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
957 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT RISING DEW POINTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
-A POTENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND
SUSTAINED STRONG TO NEAR GALE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET EVENING ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS
OUTSIDE OF SOME CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUR NEIGHBORING KAMX
RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
UPPER KEYS, AND EXPANDING TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE MIDDLE
KEYS. OUR 00Z SOUNDING FROM KKEY SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY, SO CARRYING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS (10%) FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT SEEMS
PLENTY REASONABLE. SATELLITE HAS NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING FROM
THESE SHOWERS, AND THEY AREN'T EXPECTED TO REALLY GET TALL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ANY LIGHTNING CONCERNS. IF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS CROSS
THE OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES, IMPACTFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
UNLIKELY, AND SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG. IT'LL JUST RESULT
IN A GROSS FEELING OUTSIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 70F,
AND DEW POINTS ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND THAT, SO
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. GOES-19 NIGHT FOG LAYER SHOWS
VERY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA, AND TRACKING ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS. WHILE THIS DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN MUCH FOR THE
FORECAST, THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO SOME AVIATION BUMPS
IN THE MORNING. SIMILAR TO EARLIER THIS MORNING, IF THESE LOW
STRATUS DECKS DO COME TO FRUITION, THEY SHOULD LIFT AROUND THE
TIME OF SUNRISE. NO CHANGES OR UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WEAK
TROUGHING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO FUEL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STRAITS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY FRESHEN TO STRONG BREEZES.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY, BUT
EXACTLY HOW STRONG BREEZES GET IS UNCERTAIN. THE PERIOD OF PEAK
BREEZES WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG; BY TUESDAY EVENING, EXPECT BREEZES
TO SLACKEN TO FRESH TO STRONG.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED CIGS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE MOST
LIKELY AT MTH AS THESE LOWER CLOUD DECKS WILL ADVECT OFF OF THE
PENINSULA, BUT A FEW STRAY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT OVER EYW AS
WELL. FOR NOW, WE’LL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FOR MTH, BUT
CAN AMEND EYW TO MATCH THIS IF CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE. ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD LIFT EITHER AT,
OR JUST AFTER, SUNRISE AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE, WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DRY AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 70 79 70 80 / 10 10 10 0
MARATHON 69 80 69 82 / 10 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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