407
FXUS62 KKEY 240928
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
428 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT RISING DEW POINTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
-A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATE MONDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
STRONG TO NEAR GALE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A REINFORCING FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
SLOW MODERATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW NEAR 70 WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO. A SHALLOW RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT
TO GENTLE AND BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST ALONG A SOUTH FLORIDA CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY, AND HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO POKE ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS
INTO THE FLORIDA BAY.
THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING MODERATION, A FIRMING UP RIDGE ACROSS
FLORIDA, AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL
RESULT IN WINDS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 70S.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGING
WITH A CAROLINA COASTAL LOW. THE TAIL END OF AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BARELY SCRAPE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE, FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. AS A RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, DRIVEN BY A 1040
TO 1045 HIGH CELL ADVANCING SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE PLAINS. EXPECT
LOCAL BREEZES TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY, BECOMING STRONG WITH
POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PULLS ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A
REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RESULT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A SHALLOW RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND A WEAK
TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
BREEZES ON KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, TICKING
UP TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA
FIRMS UP AND TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN GULF. A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BLAST THROUGH KEYS WATERS IN THE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL
FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. EXPECT BREEZES TO BECOME
STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED WITH BREEZES RELAXING CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND MAY BRING WITH IT ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE. THIS SECOND SURGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY. LINES OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CLOUD
BASES BELOW MVFR CIGS ARE A RISK ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE
MORNING, BUT THE ODDS OF SUSTAINED MVFR OR IFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER EASTERLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY IN 2003, KEY WEST
EXPERIENCED A VERY CHILLY DAY BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 56 F AND A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 45 F WERE RECORDED AT
THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. BOTH MEASUREMENT SET RECORDS FOR
THE DATE. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1873.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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