217
FXUS62 KKEY 241548
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1048 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT RISING DEW POINTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
-A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATE MONDAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
STRONG TO NEAR GALE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A REINFORCING FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS REMAINING AT THIS TIME. SEEN
ON GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE, A MAJORITY OF THOSE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED HAVE BROKEN APART MAKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN
ENJOYABLE SATURDAY IS ONGOING WITH HIGHS NEARING 80, DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S, AND LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES. ACROSS THE REEF,
OBSERVATION SITES ARE RECORDING NEAR 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS
FLORIDA PROMOTING THESE LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE
TEMPERATURES. GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
SLOW MODERATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW NEAR 70 WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO. A SHALLOW RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT
TO GENTLE AND BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST ALONG A SOUTH FLORIDA CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY, AND HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO POKE ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS
INTO THE FLORIDA BAY.
THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING MODERATION, A FIRMING UP RIDGE ACROSS
FLORIDA, AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL
RESULT IN WINDS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 70S.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGING
WITH A CAROLINA COASTAL LOW. THE TAIL END OF AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BARELY SCRAPE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE, FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. AS A RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, DRIVEN BY A 1040
TO 1045 HIGH CELL ADVANCING SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE PLAINS. EXPECT
LOCAL BREEZES TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY, BECOMING STRONG WITH
POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PULLS ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A
REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RESULT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH KEYS WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS RELAX
SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH.
CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK APART LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EASTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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