196
FXUS62 KKEY 250922
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
422 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
PERSIST TODAY INTO TOMORROW. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
70S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
-A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATE MONDAY. WINDS WILL CLOCK NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN
CONSIDERABLY. NEAR GALE BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH ONE, POSSIBLY TWO,
REINFORCING FRONT(S), HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA
IS DRIVING LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES, ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS CUBA AND DRIVING CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF, BROAD RIDGING THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED STABLE CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR ALOFT
HAS HELPED TO MINIMIZE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DESCENDS INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. AS A RESULT, LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL RELAX AND GRADUALLY CLOCK SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM AT BEST.
THE WEATHER WILL TAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE COOL/COLD SIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WESTERLY BREEZES TO
STRENGTHEN MODESTLY ON MONDAY THEN SURGE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE FRONT'S SHOWER POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH
DAY TIME HEATING, WILL HELP TO DRIVE DOWN WINDS ON TUESDAY. THE
INCOMING COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S,
RECOVERING ONLY INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY.
THE COLD STRETCH MAY LAST WELL THROUGH THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY INSISTENT THAT A SERIES OF HIGH CELLS WILL
POUR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COUPLE OF REINFORCING FRONTS THROUGH THE KEYS. THE FIRST FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND SATURDAY NIGHT.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO, BREEZES WILL BACK NORTHERLY AND FRESHEN
MODESTLY WITH EACH FRONT AND MAINTAIN A STEADY STREAM OF COOL
AIR. WITH THAT SAID, THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIANCE IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PERIODS. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE HIGH AND LOW FORECAST NEAR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH IS
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEST BREEZES, A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH
LARGE SWINGS IN WIND SPEED ARE INCOMING. FOR TODAY, AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DRIVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AS A RESULT, LIGHT TO GENTLE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL RELAX AND CLOCK SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BLAST ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST ON
MONDAY, BEFORE SURGING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PEAK IN BREEZES IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO FLORIDA WILL HELP
MODERATE BREEZES ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAKER SURGE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY. INDIVIDUAL SHALLOW
SHOWERS WILL FORM AROUND THE ISLAND TERMINALS, BUT NOT AT SUFFICIENT
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE VCSH. AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR DECAYING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO VEER
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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