585
FXUS62 KKEY 251628
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1128 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
-A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATE MONDAY. WINDS WILL CLOCK NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN
CONSIDERABLY. NEAR GALE BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH ONE, POSSIBLY TWO,
REINFORCING FRONT(S), HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
HAPPY SUNDAY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80F AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REEF ARE BEING RECORDED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS, THEREFORE, "SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL
WINDS DECREASE" HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE HAWK CHANNEL AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEING DETECTED IN THE
DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA BUT BEYOND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL,
HAZARDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US IN WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ROLLS
THROUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA
IS DRIVING LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES, ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS CUBA AND DRIVING CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF, BROAD RIDGING THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED STABLE CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR ALOFT
HAS HELPED TO MINIMIZE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DESCENDS INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. AS A RESULT, LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL RELAX AND GRADUALLY CLOCK SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM AT BEST.
THE WEATHER WILL TAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE COOL/COLD SIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WESTERLY BREEZES TO
STRENGTHEN MODESTLY ON MONDAY THEN SURGE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE FRONT'S SHOWER POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH
DAY TIME HEATING, WILL HELP TO DRIVE DOWN WINDS ON TUESDAY. THE
INCOMING COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S,
RECOVERING ONLY INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY.
THE COLD STRETCH MAY LAST WELL THROUGH THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY INSISTENT THAT A SERIES OF HIGH CELLS WILL
POUR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COUPLE OF REINFORCING FRONTS THROUGH THE KEYS. THE FIRST FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND SATURDAY NIGHT.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO, BREEZES WILL BACK NORTHERLY AND FRESHEN
MODESTLY WITH EACH FRONT AND MAINTAIN A STEADY STREAM OF COOL
AIR. WITH THAT SAID, THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIANCE IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PERIODS. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE HIGH AND LOW FORECAST NEAR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH IS
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE IN THE
HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO
MODERATE BREEZES TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARDS AND CLOCK SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD AND A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE TAIL END OF A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
MODESTLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SURGING CONSIDERABLY IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEGINNING
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS FLORIDA. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER WIND SURGE
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ROLLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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