336
FXUS62 KKEY 260354
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1054 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
-A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATE MONDAY. WINDS WILL CLOCK NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN
CONSIDERABLY. NEAR GALE BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH ONE, POSSIBLY TWO,
REINFORCING FRONT(S), HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S
BLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN MAINLY CLEAR OF
PRECIPITABLE ECHOES MINUS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IS NOTING SOME
DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS PERCOLATING IN THE STRAITS AND HAWK
CHANNEL BEFORE GHOSTING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. WINDOWS ARE ALREADY
STEAMING UP WITH DEW OUTSIDE AS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S APPROACH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
BREEZES ALONG THE REEF ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER AFTER EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING TO THEIR CURRENT
DIRECTION.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS BEEN
A KEY COMPONENT OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
RECEDE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE GULF TOWARDS THE KEYS. AS A RESULT,
BREEZES WILL BOTTOM OUT AND VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
TOMORROW MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN OVERNIGHT, THOUGH OUR
KKEY 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING STILL SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB. TOMORROW, SOME CAMS DO HINT AT A FEW
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
DEEP CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IS WHEN THE FRESH
BECOMING STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARRIVE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARDS AND CLOCK SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD AND A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE TAIL END OF A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
MODESTLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SURGING CONSIDERABLY IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS FLORIDA. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER WIND SURGE IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
ROLLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT OVER EITHER TERMINAL, BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL
DEVELOPING AND OVERALL SCATTERED AT WORST SO NO MENTION IS NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 80 57 68 / 10 20 10 0
MARATHON 72 80 57 66 / 10 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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