205
FXUS62 KKEY 260931
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
431 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL
CLOCK NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN CONSIDERABLY. NEAR GALE
BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH ONE, POSSIBLY TWO,
REINFORCING FRONT(S), HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL OF KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.
-THE REINFORCING FRONTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL PERIODIC
AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SURGES THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
BIG CHANGES ARE COMING FOR KEYS WEATHER THIS WEEK. TO START THINGS
OFF, A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
AND THROUGH THE KEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG MID LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FIRM UP MODESTLY OUT OF THE WEST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT NEAR 80 WITH DEW
POINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH BARELY SCRAPES ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT AS THE FRONT REACHES THE KEYS.
MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
AS A RESULT, DESPITE HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS, RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SLIM AT BEST. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WINDS WILL SURGE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH, BECOMING WINDY. THIS FRONT WILL INJECT
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER ACROSS THE KEYS. EXPECT HIGHS AND LOWS TO
SLIP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COOLEST LOWS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
A SOUTH FLORIDA LAND BREEZE. DEW POINTS WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 50
MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED STRETCH OF MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER, LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWS FALLING
BROADLY IN THE 50S. THESE PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN RESPONSE, A COUPLE OF STRONG REINFORCING SURFACE HIGHS
DRIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REINFORCE
THE COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY SURGES.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE COOLER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS DUE, IN PART, TO THE
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES, AND THE
HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE SHALLOW NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 50S. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH KEYS WATERS BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE
REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
WATERS. EXPECT BREEZES TO RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL WIND SURGES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
KEYS WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
INFREQUENT OBSERVATIONS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT MTH ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR 12Z DUE TO PATCHY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
AREA. ONCE THESE CLOUDS LIFT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. EYW SHOULD NOT SEE ANY CATEGORICAL IMPACTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW, NEAR 10 PERCENT.
LIGHT, WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL
VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. FREQUENT NW TO NNW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z, AND CROSS WIND CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1905, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 51F
AND THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 44F, BOTH COLD RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.5F, THIS RANKS AS A 4-WAY TIE FOR
THE SECOND-COLDEST DAY ON RECORD IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1873
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page