804
FXUS62 KKEY 261631
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1131 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL
CLOCK NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN CONSIDERABLY. NEAR GALE
BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH ONE, POSSIBLY TWO,
REINFORCING FRONT(S), HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL OF KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.
-THE REINFORCING FRONTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL PERIODIC AND
SIGNIFICANT WIND SURGES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
KBYX IS DETECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR WATERS CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEAR 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S MAKING IT
MUGGY FEELING OUTSIDE. ALONG THE REEF OBSERVATION SITES ARE
RECORDING 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY WARM AND
HUMID ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS, THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO OUR WATERS AND ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER IN
THE DAY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN
BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH, AS IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY FRESHEN AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUT
IN EFFECT BY TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
BIG CHANGES ARE COMING FOR KEYS WEATHER THIS WEEK. TO START THINGS
OFF, A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
AND THROUGH THE KEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG MID LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FIRM UP MODESTLY OUT OF THE WEST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT NEAR 80 WITH DEW
POINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH BARELY SCRAPES ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT AS THE FRONT REACHES THE KEYS.
MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
AS A RESULT, DESPITE HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS, RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SLIM AT BEST. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WINDS WILL SURGE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH, BECOMING WINDY. THIS FRONT WILL INJECT
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER ACROSS THE KEYS. EXPECT HIGHS AND LOWS TO
SLIP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COOLEST LOWS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
A SOUTH FLORIDA LAND BREEZE. DEW POINTS WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 50
MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED STRETCH OF MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER, LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWS FALLING
BROADLY IN THE 50S. THESE PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN RESPONSE, A COUPLE OF STRONG REINFORCING SURFACE HIGHS
DRIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REINFORCE
THE COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY SURGES.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE COOLER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS DUE, IN PART, TO THE
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES, AND THE
HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE SHALLOW NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 50S. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS THIS
EVENING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT RACES IN THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. FROM SYNOPSIS, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL START OUT LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, STRENGTHENING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY, AS THE TAIL END OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. EXPECT WINDS
TO FRESHEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE KEYS
MARINE ZONES, CLOCKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
BECOMING STRONG, GUSTING UP TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX
SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL
WIND SURGES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ROLLS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS
EVENING BRINGING IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND BEHIND IT CLOUDY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND TEMPOS
WILL BE INCLUDED IF NEED BE LATER THIS EVENING. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT, AROUND
00Z, WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WHILE STAYING
ELEVATED, POTENTIALLY POSING CROSSWIND CONCERNS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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