597
FXUS62 KKEY 281028
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
528 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR ALL KEYS WATERS OUTSIDE OF
FLORIDA BAY AS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE HANGING
ON.
-BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN,
BUT THE COOL NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF OUR BREEZES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL.
-PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR A DAMP AND COLD WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS MAY SEE WIND CHILLS
IN THE 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
BREEZY NORTH WINDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT,
AND FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S HAVE REMINDED US THAT, EVEN THOUGH WE LIVE IN
FLORIDA, IT IS STILL WINTERTIME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEATHER HAS
REMAINED DRY ALONG OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES, AND OUR KBYX RADAR IS
JUST DETECTING TWO AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DISTANT
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM LAST NIGHT'S BALLOON LAUNCH
SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL DRY COLUMN OF AIR, BUT THERE WAS ALSO A THIN
LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR 850MB. EVEN THOUGH THAT SOUNDING ISN'T
NECESSARILY THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE CURRENT COLUMN, GOES-19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA, INDICATING THAT THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LINGERING
ALOFT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY
NOTEWORTHY SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WITH SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR
THE LOWER LEVELS, CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) OF RAINFALL
TODAY SEEMS REASONABLE.
OUTSIDE OF THE CHILLIER TEMPERATURES, THE NEXT FEW DAYS DON'T SEEM
TERRIBLE. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO APPROACH THE 70F DURING PEAK HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY CLOUD COVER THAT CAN LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME
WILL ACT AS INSULATION, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD TREND WARMER
WITH EACH PASSING NIGHT.
THE WEEKEND IS WHERE THIS FORECAST MAY EITHER SHINE, OR FALL
APART. ANOTHER WINTER STORM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL SEND A
POTENT COLD FRONT DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS COLD FRONT, BREEZES WILL
SEEM TO CHANGE AT THE FLICK OF A SWITCH AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT ARRIVES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 60% TO
70% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO EXCEED 30 MPH BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THESE STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
COULD LEAD TO A WEEKEND THAT MANY OF US HAVE NOT SEEN IN A LONG
TIME. THE NBM IS GIVING THE UPPER KEYS A NOTABLE CHANCE, NEAR 70%,
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS LESS THAN 40F SATURDAY NIGHT. WHEN WE SHIFT
THE THRESHOLD TO 35F, THAT PROBABILITY COMES DOWN TO 25% TO 30%.
REGARDLESS OF THE NUMBER, GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO FIND AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WEEKEND MAY SEE A PUSH OF WINTER WEATHER THAT MANY OF US
HAVEN'T SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME. BREEZES WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO SLACKEN ON SUNDAY, BUT THE COLDER AIR WILL STILL
LINGER INTO THE NEW WEEK. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS ARE GOING TO BE CRUCIAL FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL
WATERS OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA BAY. ACROSS FLORIDA BAY, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH
NORTHERLY BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL ONLY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF. BREEZES WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES AT
OUR DOORSTEP, AND A DRASTIC FRESHENING WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. STRONG
TO POSSIBLE NEAR GALE FORCE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLACKENED SINCE
YESTERDAY, NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TO AVIATORS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND TERMINALS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20
TO 23 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF THE CROSSWIND CHALLENGE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY MORNING, WITH BKN CIGS REMAINING
BASED AT AROUND 040-060.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1940, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 43F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. JANUARY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1873.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 67 57 71 61 / 10 0 0 20
MARATHON 66 56 69 62 / 10 10 0 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ032>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page