572
FXUS62 KKEY 281526
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WEST
OF CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE AS FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE HANGING ON.
-BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN,
BUT THE COOL NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF OUR BREEZES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL.
-PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR A DAMP AND COLD WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS MAY SEE WIND CHILLS
IN THE 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 952 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED AND HEADACHE INDUCING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE TO HANG ON DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND
BY NOW. HI-RES MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB AT
SHOWING THESE WINDS PERSISTING. THE QUESTION BECOMES DO WE TRUST
THEM GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE MODELS (GLOBAL/HI-RES/MESO) SHOW THAT WE COULD SEE SCA
WINDS LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR WATERS. IT WILL BE VERY BORDERLINE FOR THE REMAINING WATERS
AND WILL INCLUDE MENTIONS THAT WHILE WE EXPECT SCEC WINDS, THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCA FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. OTHERWISE,
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW NOT ONE BUT TWO INVERSIONS SHOULD KEEP US
PRETTY CLOUDY AND DREARY LOOKING TODAY. THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
AFFECT OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE DECIDED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AND
CONCENTRATED ALONG PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE ZONES, LIKE THE ONE WE
CURRENTLY SEE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THAT BEING SAID,
JUST ABOVE 850 MB, WE HAVE A WIND SHIFT OF 180 DEGREES AND WINDS
ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MID LEVELS, BUT IT'LL REMAIN TO BE SEEN IF IT COULD
SUCCESSFULLY FALL TO THE SURFACE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 952 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
BREEZES WILL BE WAXING AND WANING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES MAY
BRIEFLY SLACKEN TO MODERATE TO FRESH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST,
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SLACKENING PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SURGING AS THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE COMES OFF THE MAINLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK AROUND
FL050. WHILE NOT LOW ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LLWS, DO WANT TO
ADVISE PILOTS THAT SURFACE TO 3500 FEET, WINDS ARE NORTHEAST,
THEN ABOVE THAT SHIFT 180 DEGREES AND COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
BREEZY NORTH WINDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT,
AND FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S HAVE REMINDED US THAT, EVEN THOUGH WE LIVE IN
FLORIDA, IT IS STILL WINTERTIME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEATHER HAS
REMAINED DRY ALONG OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES, AND OUR KBYX RADAR IS
JUST DETECTING TWO AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DISTANT
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM LAST NIGHT'S BALLOON LAUNCH
SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL DRY COLUMN OF AIR, BUT THERE WAS ALSO A THIN
LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR 850MB. EVEN THOUGH THAT SOUNDING ISN'T
NECESSARILY THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE CURRENT COLUMN, GOES-19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA, INDICATING THAT THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LINGERING
ALOFT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY
NOTEWORTHY SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WITH SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR
THE LOWER LEVELS, CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) OF RAINFALL
TODAY SEEMS REASONABLE.
OUTSIDE OF THE CHILLIER TEMPERATURES, THE NEXT FEW DAYS DON'T SEEM
TERRIBLE. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO APPROACH THE 70F DURING PEAK HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY CLOUD COVER THAT CAN LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME
WILL ACT AS INSULATION, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD TREND WARMER
WITH EACH PASSING NIGHT.
THE WEEKEND IS WHERE THIS FORECAST MAY EITHER SHINE, OR FALL
APART. ANOTHER WINTER STORM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL SEND A
POTENT COLD FRONT DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS COLD FRONT, BREEZES WILL
SEEM TO CHANGE AT THE FLICK OF A SWITCH AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT ARRIVES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 60% TO
70% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO EXCEED 30 MPH BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THESE STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
COULD LEAD TO A WEEKEND THAT MANY OF US HAVE NOT SEEN IN A LONG
TIME. THE NBM IS GIVING THE UPPER KEYS A NOTABLE CHANCE, NEAR 70%,
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS LESS THAN 40F SATURDAY NIGHT. WHEN WE SHIFT
THE THRESHOLD TO 35F, THAT PROBABILITY COMES DOWN TO 25% TO 30%.
REGARDLESS OF THE NUMBER, GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO FIND AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WEEKEND MAY SEE A PUSH OF WINTER WEATHER THAT MANY OF US
HAVEN'T SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME. BREEZES WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO SLACKEN ON SUNDAY, BUT THE COLDER AIR WILL STILL
LINGER INTO THE NEW WEEK. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS ARE GOING TO BE CRUCIAL FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 67 57 71 61 / 10 0 0 20
MARATHON 66 56 69 62 / 10 10 0 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031-032>033-035>042-044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page