766
FXUS62 KKEY 281945
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES.
-BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL SLACKEN THURSDAY,
BUT THE COOL NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF OUR BREEZES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL.
-PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR A DAMP AND COLD WEEKEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS MAY SEE WIND CHILLS
IN THE 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
BREEZES HAVE BRIEFLY SLACKENED TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING BREEZES TO
WAX AND WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SURGE IN WINDS
WILL COME DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
LULL, THEN ANOTHER SURGE AS A DRAINAGE WIND COMES OFF THE
MAINLAND. AS SUCH, EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN,
MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS A
FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WINDS ACROSS THE HAWK AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SIT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST. OTHERWISE, EYES TURN TO THE
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW THAT THIS NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE STRONGER AND
PRODUCE GALE- FORCE WINDS EVEN FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS! ONCE THIS
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN KEEPING
WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE MTH TERMINAL AS
A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN ALOFT IS MOVING THROUGH. ONCE THIS PASSES
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NORTHWEST BUT WILL RETURN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS A SURGE
COMES OFF THE MAINLAND OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF LULL, GUSTY
WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
BREEZY NORTH WINDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT,
AND FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S HAVE REMINDED US THAT, EVEN THOUGH WE LIVE IN
FLORIDA, IT IS STILL WINTERTIME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEATHER HAS
REMAINED DRY ALONG OUR ISLAND COMMUNITIES, AND OUR KBYX RADAR IS
JUST DETECTING TWO AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DISTANT
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM LAST NIGHT'S BALLOON LAUNCH
SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL DRY COLUMN OF AIR, BUT THERE WAS ALSO A THIN
LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR 850MB. EVEN THOUGH THAT SOUNDING ISN'T
NECESSARILY THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE CURRENT COLUMN, GOES-19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA, INDICATING THAT THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LINGERING
ALOFT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY
NOTEWORTHY SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WITH SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR
THE LOWER LEVELS, CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) OF RAINFALL
TODAY SEEMS REASONABLE.
OUTSIDE OF THE CHILLIER TEMPERATURES, THE NEXT FEW DAYS DON'T SEEM
TERRIBLE. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO APPROACH THE 70F DURING PEAK HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY CLOUD COVER THAT CAN LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME
WILL ACT AS INSULATION, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD TREND WARMER
WITH EACH PASSING NIGHT.
THE WEEKEND IS WHERE THIS FORECAST MAY EITHER SHINE, OR FALL
APART. ANOTHER WINTER STORM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL SEND A
POTENT COLD FRONT DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS COLD FRONT, BREEZES WILL
SEEM TO CHANGE AT THE FLICK OF A SWITCH AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT ARRIVES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 60% TO
70% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO EXCEED 30 MPH BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THESE STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
COULD LEAD TO A WEEKEND THAT MANY OF US HAVE NOT SEEN IN A LONG
TIME. THE NBM IS GIVING THE UPPER KEYS A NOTABLE CHANCE, NEAR 70%,
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS LESS THAN 40F SATURDAY NIGHT. WHEN WE SHIFT
THE THRESHOLD TO 35F, THAT PROBABILITY COMES DOWN TO 25% TO 30%.
REGARDLESS OF THE NUMBER, GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO FIND AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WEEKEND MAY SEE A PUSH OF WINTER WEATHER THAT MANY OF US
HAVEN'T SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME. BREEZES WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO SLACKEN ON SUNDAY, BUT THE COLDER AIR WILL STILL
LINGER INTO THE NEW WEEK. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS ARE GOING TO BE CRUCIAL FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 56 71 62 72 / 0 10 30 40
MARATHON 54 71 62 72 / 10 10 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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