355
FXUS62 KKEY 291014
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
514 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
-A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE
KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPTIC-SCALE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
STUBBORN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EXTENDING ACROSS THE CONUS. A
STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING TO THE
WEST IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
THE EAST OF THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC, WITH A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES. THE INTERACTION OF THE HIGH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR.
WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, IN COMBINATION WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS, HAS LIMITED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SIGNAL FOR
MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
MAXIMA OBSERVED WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
FORM ALONG THIS FRONT, DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 290K SURFACE
SUPPORTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AT AROUND 850 MB, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DECENT
VEERING (WARM ADVECTION). THIS SEEMS TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS FOR THESE FORECAST PERIODS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) GUIDANCE. ELECTED TO NUDGE
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES TO MID-LEVEL CHANCE LEVELS (30-40%) FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND MEMBER FIELDS ARE IN FANTASTIC AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT RAPID SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A
TEXTBOOK SETUP FOR AN ARCTIC INVASION FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO LEVELS THE FLORIDA KEYS HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE AROUND
2010. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTERACTING WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. COUPLED WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES, RARE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS EASILY DIPPING INTO THE 30S.
AS THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY)
FLATTENS BY THE MIDDLE TO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
CURRENT MARINE-BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS
18 TO 20 KNOTS, ASSOCIATED WITH A NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE MAINTAINED UNTIL WINDS
DECREASE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE, OCCASIONALLY FRESH, NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS MARINE ZONES ON SATURDAY. BREEZES WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DRAMATICALLY FRESHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE- FORCE WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. WHILE BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, MARINE HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CARRY A MODEST CONCERN DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. CROSSWIND CONCERNS WILL LESSEN
AROUND 16Z AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY AND SLACKEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. BKN TO OVC
CIGS BASED BETWEEN 040-060 WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT
CATEGORICAL CHANGES AT EITHER TERMINAL ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2023, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 73F
WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK
TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 67 61 68 62 / 10 40 30 20
MARATHON 66 62 68 62 / 10 40 40 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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