556
FXUS62 KKEY 291533
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
-A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE
KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
A LITTLE BIT OF A DEJA VU THIS MORNING BUT ALSO A PLEASANT RETURN
OF SUNSHINE. A NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, EXTENDING FROM NEAR BIMINI TO CAY SAL BANK
IS PRODUCING SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE RELATIVELY
MUCH CLEARER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND WE ARE ENJOYING A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. REMNANTS OF A NOCTURNAL SURGE ARE QUICKLY
SUBSIDING AND THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AND HAVE REPLACED THEM
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.
A SHORTWAVE CENTERED AT THE 850-700 MB MEAN LAYER MOVED OUT OF
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE GULF BASIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS, IT
DEVOLVED INTO A TROUGH. THIS TROUGH HOWEVER, LOOKS TO REGAIN SOME
LIFE TONIGHT AS IT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF CUBA. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS IN THIS LAYER TO QUICKLY CLOCK
AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SLUGGISH BUT HINT THAT A WEAK
SURFACE FEATURE MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM. THIS IS LEADING TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT WE COULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER. SAID WEATHER MAKER IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE BARRELING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH THAT THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SEE
MULTIPLE IMPACTS, INCLUDING WIND, MARINE, COLD, AND POSSIBLY
COASTAL FLOOD. STAY TUNE FOR FUTURE UPDATES!!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
A NOCTURNAL SURGE OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLACKENING AND
THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THAT BEING
SAID, MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE CUBAN COAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS
FEATURE IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AND STILL
EXPECTING A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG
MAY SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ISLAND TERMINALS BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO
NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FROM MTH AND EASTWARD. WILL REASSESS RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR THE 18Z TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPTIC-SCALE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
STUBBORN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EXTENDING ACROSS THE CONUS. A
STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING TO THE
WEST IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
THE EAST OF THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC, WITH A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES. THE INTERACTION OF THE HIGH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR.
WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, IN COMBINATION WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS, HAS LIMITED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SIGNAL FOR
MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
MAXIMA OBSERVED WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
FORM ALONG THIS FRONT, DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 290K SURFACE
SUPPORTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AT AROUND 850 MB, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DECENT
VEERING (WARM ADVECTION). THIS SEEMS TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS FOR THESE FORECAST PERIODS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) GUIDANCE. ELECTED TO NUDGE
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES TO MID-LEVEL CHANCE LEVELS (30-40%) FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND MEMBER FIELDS ARE IN FANTASTIC AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT RAPID SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A
TEXTBOOK SETUP FOR AN ARCTIC INVASION FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO LEVELS THE FLORIDA KEYS HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE AROUND
2010. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTERACTING WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. COUPLED WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES, RARE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS EASILY DIPPING INTO THE 30S.
AS THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY)
FLATTENS BY THE MIDDLE TO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 67 61 68 62 / 10 40 30 20
MARATHON 66 62 68 62 / 10 40 40 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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