531
FXUS62 KKEY 292011
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
311 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
-A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE
KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
BREEZES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE
SUBSTANTIALLY SLACKENED TO LIGHT TO GENTLE. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE HAWK CHANNEL AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WATERS. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURE THAT
WILL FORM ALONG THE CUBAN COAST AND EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
POOL NORTHWARD ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING COAST WATERS, INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES. THIS
FEATURE IS SEPARATE AND INDEPENDENT FROM THE NEXT INCOMING COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE
BRING GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER, MARINE HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ISLAND TERMINALS. RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE IN CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT,
OR 05Z/FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTIONS OF MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPTIC-SCALE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
STUBBORN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EXTENDING ACROSS THE CONUS. A
STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING TO THE
WEST IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
THE EAST OF THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC, WITH A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES. THE INTERACTION OF THE HIGH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR.
WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, IN COMBINATION WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS, HAS LIMITED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SIGNAL FOR
MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
MAXIMA OBSERVED WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
FORM ALONG THIS FRONT, DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 290K SURFACE
SUPPORTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AT AROUND 850 MB, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DECENT
VEERING (WARM ADVECTION). THIS SEEMS TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS FOR THESE FORECAST PERIODS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) GUIDANCE. ELECTED TO NUDGE
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES TO MID-LEVEL CHANCE LEVELS (30-40%) FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND MEMBER FIELDS ARE IN FANTASTIC AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT RAPID SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A
TEXTBOOK SETUP FOR AN ARCTIC INVASION FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO LEVELS THE FLORIDA KEYS HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE AROUND
2010. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTERACTING WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. COUPLED WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES, RARE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS EASILY DIPPING INTO THE 30S.
AS THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY)
FLATTENS BY THE MIDDLE TO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 61 67 62 69 / 40 40 20 70
MARATHON 61 68 60 67 / 40 50 20 60
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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