383
FXUS62 KKEY 312104
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
404 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GALE-FORCE WINDS
(35 TO 40 KNOTS) WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
-VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT BLASTING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS.
-THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ON OUR GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS AS OF 4 PM AND THIS LATEST LINE IS RACING EASTWARD AT 30 TO
35 KNOTS. BEHIND THE LINE WE HAVE SEEN BREEZES FRESHEN TO STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE STRENGTH. THE UPWARD TREND IN WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. EXPECT A PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WINDS (35 TO 40
KNOTS) THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS FRONT, BREEZES WILL BE HESITANT TO SLACKEN AND IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE SEE A CONSIDERABLE
SLACKENING OF WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES RETURN TUESDAY AND
WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, WATCHING FOR THE NEXT
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING BRIEF MVFR/SUB-IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SLOW
TO SLACKEN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 605 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
CALM AND DAMP CONDITIONS LINGERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING NEAR 60F, AND THE ACCOMPANYING DEW POINTS
ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND. SOME QUICK MATH GIVES US
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 90% TO 95%! NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
BREEZES HAVE BEEN LIGHT WITH AUTOMATED STATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 5 MPH. WHILE OUR KBYX RADAR
HASN’T HAD MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRACK DURING THIS SHIFT, A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY CRAWLING INTO OUR GULF WATERS.
OVERLAYING GOES-19 CLOUD TOP IMAGERY, WE CAN SEE AN EXPANSIVE BAND
OF CLOUD COVER STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF, THE PENINSULA, AND INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD FRONT IS CLOSER TO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS BAND OF
CLOUDS, SO THE INITIAL PUSH OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE AN APPETIZER FOR WHATS TO COME.
IF LEADING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS OUR WATERS AT THEIR
CURRENT SPEED, WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL ARRIVE TO THE ISLAND CHAIN
AROUND 9 AM OR 10 AM, GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. FLOODING FROM
RAINFALL ISN’T NECESSARILY A CONCERN AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY, AND SHOULDN’T HAVE TO OPTION TO LINGER OVER OUR ISLAND
COMMUNITIES, BUT ANY LOCALIZED AREAS THAT DRAIN POORLY MAY HAVE
SOME PONDING WATER. EVEN THOUGH BREEZES WILL INCREASE WITH THESE
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS, HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY BRIEF AND
NARROW AREA OF LULLING BREEZES MAY SNEAK IN BEHIND THE LINE OF
SHOWERS. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, DO NOT BE FOOLED BY IT.
BREEZES WILL DRASTICALLY SHARPEN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS, AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. LOOSE
AND UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY BLOW AROUND, AND DRIVING HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR BRIDGES, MAY BE DIFFICULT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 30 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. COLD AIR FILLING IN RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT
ROLLS THROUGH HAS RESULTED IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY
BECAUSE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE NOT SOMETHING WE TYPICALLY SEE
ANYWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER KEYS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGH
CHANCES (NEAR 80%) OF WIND CHILLS DIPPING BELOW 30F FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THE NIGHT IN THE UPPER KEYS. CHANCES FOR THESE
EXCEPTIONAL WIND CHILLS ARE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS,
AROUND 20%, SO WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ISOLATED TO THE UPPER KEYS. PLEASE DO NOT ASSUME THAT WE ARE IN
THE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE, AND EVEN LOWER, KEYS. THIS IS RECORD
BREAKING COLD AIR. CLIMATE REANALYSIS CALCULATED THAT THIS AIR
MASS IS AROUND 5 TO ALMOST 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL, AND
THE CHANCES OF SEEING ANOTHER WINTER LIKE THIS ARE AROUND 10%.
WHEN THE COLD FRONT EXITS TOMORROW, THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FROM
THE DRASTIC TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AIR MASSES WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED NEAR GALE BREEZES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO RECOVER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY. GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLES ARE POINTING TO PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE COLDER
AIR FOR OUR LONG-TIME FLORIDIANS, AND WE SHOULD FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK IS A LITTLE BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE THE
MODELS ARE STILL TACKLING THE CURRENT SITUATION. FOR NOW, THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT DETAILS RELATED TO THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE STILL UNCLEAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 47 57 48 59 / 40 10 0 0
MARATHON 41 54 43 56 / 40 10 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FOR FLZ076>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR FLZ076.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR FLZ078.
GM...GALE WARNING FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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