015
FXUS62 KKEY 010352
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1052 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GALE-FORCE WINDS
NEAR 35 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
-VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE
RECENT POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THESE COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLAND CHAIN, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER KEYS.
-THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON
OUR GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON HAS
DRIVEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THEIR PEAK WITH MARINE PLATFORMS INDICATING NEAR 30
KNOTS SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLIES, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY TRENDED DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND NOW RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS TO THE MID
50S IN THE UPPER KEYS. DEW POINTS ARE NOW BROADLY IN THE UPPER
40S.
A STRONG HIGH CELL CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRESS
FURTHER SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS OUT OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL TREND SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGH SUN-UP.
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LAKE ARE NEAR 40 F WITH DEW POINTS BELOW
FREEZING. THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUE
THE DOWNWARD PLUNGE IN LOCAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. MORNING LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE LOWER
KEYS TO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR UPPER KEYS. THIS ALONG WITH THE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE MID 20S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL KEYS WATERS AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER KEYS.
IN ADDITION, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ONSHORE BREEZES AND
HIGH TIDE. WHILE OBSERVATIONS ARE FEW, ONLY ONE STATION HAS
IS REPORTING TIDAL ANOMALIES APPROACHING STATEMENT CRITERIA. WITH
WINDS NEARING THEIR PEAK AND HIGH TIDE PAST, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED. THEREFORE, HAVE LOWERED THE
ADVISORY TO STATEMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. INCREASINGLY
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE
OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY
NEAR PEAK VELOCITIES, AND SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, VERY LARGE SEAS WILL REMAIN, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS OBSERVED ON OUR WESTERN WATERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. WHILE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN BASED IN THE LOW VFR RANGE, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARDS SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAIN HEFTY WITH A
LARGE CROSSWIND COMPONENT.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ076>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ076.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-
052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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