149
FXUS62 KKEY 011139
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
639 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS NORTHWEST BREEZES OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
LOCAL WATERS.
-COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLAND CHAIN ALONG WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER
KEYS.
-STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND BAYSIDE WATERS MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING, AND A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
-WEATHER WILL TREND DRIER AND MODESTLY WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY MOVE THROUGH AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WEATHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS DONE A TURN AROUND COURTESY OF
A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BLASTED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. GALE-
FORCE NORTHWEST BREEZES PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS WE HAVE SEEN ALONG OUR ISLAND
COMMUNITIES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM 35 TO ALMOST 45 MPH! MARINE
PLATFORMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35
AND 40 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CURRENT AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LOWER 50S FOR
THE LOWER KEYS, UPPER 40S FOR THE MIDDLE KEYS, AND NEAR 40F FOR
THE UPPER KEYS. OUR COLDEST OBSERVATION HAS BEEN FROM KEY LARGO
WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENT 39F WITH A WIND CHILL OF 31F.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, OUR AREA HAS SEEN A TEMPERATURE CHANGE
AROUND TEN TO ALMOST TWENTY DEGREES.
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME IMAGERY OFFERS A GLIMPSE OF A BEAUTIFUL
ATMOSPHERE. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE GULF REGION IS
INTERACTING WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF, AND THE RESULT IS
COUNTLESS BANDS OF CLOUD STREETS ROLLING ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC. WHILE IT APPEARS OUR KBYX RADAR IS DETECTING A LOT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY, IT IS ACTUALLY PICKING UP ON THE CLOUDS RUNNING
ACROSS OUR SKY. THERE MAY BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MIXED IN,
BUT OUR SEEMINGLY BUSY RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BUSY.
THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, BUT THE GRADIENT WILL
START TO LOOSEN. THIS WILL ALLOW BREEZES TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN, BUT
DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH RELIEF FROM THE COLDER AIR AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY GET INTO THE 50S TODAY. LATER TONIGHT, WIND
CHILLS MAY BE A CONCERN IN THE UPPER KEYS AS PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S HAVE A 20% TO 30% OF OCCURRING
AGAIN.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE ITS PLACE. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LIGHTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE STILL
FAVORING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE ARE VERY FEW INDICATORS THAT THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS POTENT AS THE ONE THAT JUST CAME
THROUGH. IT'S STILL JUST A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY
FORECAST DETAILS, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MAY NOT BE DONE WITH
US JUST YET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS (35 TO
40 KNOTS) WILL SLACKEN DURING THE MORNING, BUT WE WILL HANG ON TO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS BREEZES AND SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN. NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN
FURTHER ON TUESDAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE. NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, AND COULD
BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF FRESHENING BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY.
WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS IN THE MORNING HOURS, THEIR
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND WEAK INTENSITIES WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
EITHER TAF FOR NOW. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL DECLINE SLOWLY THROUGH
TODAY BUT STILL POSE A CROSSWIND COMPONENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1995, THE DAILY COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65F WAS
RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO
1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 59 51 62 54 / 20 0 0 0
MARATHON 55 45 59 50 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ076>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ076.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-
052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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