129
FXUS62 KKEY 011548
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1048 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES REMAINS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS.
-COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT THE WIND ADVISORY AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE DUE TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAY NEED ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER KEYS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
-WEATHER WILL TREND DRIER AND MODESTLY WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY MOVE THROUGH AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
QUITE THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVERNIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN
THE UPPER KEYS, LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE MIDDLE KEYS, AND UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY STIFF
WIND RESULTED IN WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S. SINCE SUNRISE, WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED, ALLOWING FOR
WIND CHILL VALUES TO REBOUND. AS A RESULT WE WERE ABLE TO DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
LIKEWISE, ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS, BREEZES HAVE SLACKENED ENOUGH
THAT WE CAN DOWNGRADE THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
EXPECTING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS CAA WILL ALSO LIMIT OUR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING, EXPECTING
HIGHS TO STAY IN THE 50S FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COMMUNITIES.
ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO REMOVE HEADLINES AND ADJUST WIND
TRANSITIONS. OTHERWISE, THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT) FOR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. LOOKING AHEAD, EVEN THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE COMING DOWN,
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE UPPER
KEYS. WE WILL ASSESS THAT ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN FROM OVERNIGHT GALE-FORCE WINDS (35 TO 40 KNOTS) AND
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AND
EXPECTING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD. FOR EYW WE WILL
SEE A PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK AOA FL040 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MEANWHILE, FOR THE MTH TERMINAL, IT WILL BE MORE SPOTTY
AND TRANSIENT IN NATURE. NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE COME DOWN FROM
THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN. HOWEVER, A
CROSSWIND MAGNITUDE OF 20 TO 22 KNOTS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WEATHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS DONE A TURN AROUND COURTESY OF
A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BLASTED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. GALE-
FORCE NORTHWEST BREEZES PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS WE HAVE SEEN ALONG OUR ISLAND
COMMUNITIES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM 35 TO ALMOST 45 MPH! MARINE
PLATFORMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35
AND 40 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CURRENT AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LOWER 50S FOR
THE LOWER KEYS, UPPER 40S FOR THE MIDDLE KEYS, AND NEAR 40F FOR
THE UPPER KEYS. OUR COLDEST OBSERVATION HAS BEEN FROM KEY LARGO
WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENT 39F WITH A WIND CHILL OF 31F.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, OUR AREA HAS SEEN A TEMPERATURE CHANGE
AROUND TEN TO ALMOST TWENTY DEGREES.
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME IMAGERY OFFERS A GLIMPSE OF A BEAUTIFUL
ATMOSPHERE. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE GULF REGION IS
INTERACTING WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF, AND THE RESULT IS
COUNTLESS BANDS OF CLOUD STREETS ROLLING ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC. WHILE IT APPEARS OUR KBYX RADAR IS DETECTING A LOT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY, IT IS ACTUALLY PICKING UP ON THE CLOUDS RUNNING
ACROSS OUR SKY. THERE MAY BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MIXED IN,
BUT OUR SEEMINGLY BUSY RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BUSY.
THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, BUT THE GRADIENT WILL
START TO LOOSEN. THIS WILL ALLOW BREEZES TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN, BUT
DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH RELIEF FROM THE COLDER AIR AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY GET INTO THE 50S TODAY. LATER TONIGHT, WIND
CHILLS MAY BE A CONCERN IN THE UPPER KEYS AS PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S HAVE A 20% TO 30% OF OCCURRING
AGAIN.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE ITS PLACE. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LIGHTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE STILL
FAVORING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE ARE VERY FEW INDICATORS THAT THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS POTENT AS THE ONE THAT JUST CAME
THROUGH. IT'S STILL JUST A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY
FORECAST DETAILS, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MAY NOT BE DONE WITH
US JUST YET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 59 51 62 54 / 20 0 0 0
MARATHON 55 45 59 50 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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