075
FXUS62 KKEY 012012
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
312 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
- BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER KEYS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- WEATHER WILL TREND DRIER AND MODESTLY WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY MOVE THROUGH AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL BEGIN SLACKENING MORE EARNESTLY MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW
FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TO BREIFLY RETURN. THEREAFTER, STILL
WATCHING FOR ANOTHER POTENT FRONT. ALTHOUGH THIS ONE WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE LAST FRONT, A WINDOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS. EXPECT A GRADUAL SLACKENING OF WINDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WEATHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS DONE A TURN AROUND COURTESY OF
A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BLASTED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. GALE-
FORCE NORTHWEST BREEZES PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS WE HAVE SEEN ALONG OUR ISLAND
COMMUNITIES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM 35 TO ALMOST 45 MPH! MARINE
PLATFORMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35
AND 40 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CURRENT AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LOWER 50S FOR
THE LOWER KEYS, UPPER 40S FOR THE MIDDLE KEYS, AND NEAR 40F FOR
THE UPPER KEYS. OUR COLDEST OBSERVATION HAS BEEN FROM KEY LARGO
WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENT 39F WITH A WIND CHILL OF 31F.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, OUR AREA HAS SEEN A TEMPERATURE CHANGE
AROUND TEN TO ALMOST TWENTY DEGREES.
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME IMAGERY OFFERS A GLIMPSE OF A BEAUTIFUL
ATMOSPHERE. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE GULF REGION IS
INTERACTING WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF, AND THE RESULT IS
COUNTLESS BANDS OF CLOUD STREETS ROLLING ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC. WHILE IT APPEARS OUR KBYX RADAR IS DETECTING A LOT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY, IT IS ACTUALLY PICKING UP ON THE CLOUDS RUNNING
ACROSS OUR SKY. THERE MAY BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MIXED IN,
BUT OUR SEEMINGLY BUSY RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BUSY.
THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, BUT THE GRADIENT WILL
START TO LOOSEN. THIS WILL ALLOW BREEZES TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN, BUT
DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH RELIEF FROM THE COLDER AIR AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY GET INTO THE 50S TODAY. LATER TONIGHT, WIND
CHILLS MAY BE A CONCERN IN THE UPPER KEYS AS PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S HAVE A 20% TO 30% OF OCCURRING
AGAIN.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE ITS PLACE. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LIGHTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE STILL
FAVORING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE ARE VERY FEW INDICATORS THAT THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS POTENT AS THE ONE THAT JUST CAME
THROUGH. IT'S STILL JUST A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY
FORECAST DETAILS, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MAY NOT BE DONE WITH
US JUST YET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 50 60 52 64 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 44 57 50 63 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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