823
FXUS62 KKEY 021044
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
544 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN OUR EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE AND ELEVATED SEAS.
- BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE UPPER KEYS.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO THIS MORNING.
- WEATHER WILL TREND DRIER AND MODESTLY WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY MOVE THROUGH AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
ANOTHER COLD MORNING TRUDGES ON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM A COUPLE DAYS BACK. BROADLY
NORTH BREEZES ALONG THE REEF ARE MUCH SLOWER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO AS COLD AIR DRAINS OFF OF MAINLAND FLORIDA OVER THE
KEYS. EVEN WITH LESS WIND, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS
ARE IN THE LOWER 40S RESULTING IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO OCCUR RIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE, SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER KEYS WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR 30 POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, THE MIDDLE KEYS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS STRUGGLING TO CLAW BELOW 50. KBYX RADAR
HAS BEEN FREE OF ANY PRECIPITABLE ECHOES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ALL
NIGHT WITH GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS NOTING A FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS STREAMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF, WESTERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND LOWER KEYS.
WHILE WE'VE GENERALLY SEEN THE EXTREME ENDS OF BOTH THE
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENT, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP TO START THE WEEK. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE SLIDING TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZES SUSTAINING THE COOL, DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THUS, THE ENVIRONMENT CAPTURED BY YESTERDAY EVENING'S KKEY 00Z
SOUNDING SHOULD BE A GOOD PREDICTION OF WHAT TODAY'S
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ENTAIL. A LARGE MASS OF DRY AIR
ABOVE A SHARP INVERSION AT 850 MB WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
EASILY CALLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE A FIGHT TO REACH OVER
60 DEGREES TODAY, BUT CLEARER SKIES THAN YESTERDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT'S EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING IT TO STRETCH OUT OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY VEER BREEZES TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AT NIGHT MAY
RESULT IN SOME BOUTS OF RADIATIVE COOLING WITH SOME POSSIBLY
OVERACHIEVING LOW TEMPERATURES. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY THAT WILL THEN
REINFORCE OUR COOLER WEATHER WITH A DAY OR SO OF BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLIES. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE A TOUCH LATER AND LESS
INTENSE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT STILL LOOK TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND EASTERN HAWK CHANNEL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE IN THE SE GULF AND REMAINING
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EASTERN WATERS OF THE KEYS THIS MORNING
RESULTING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THESE WILL DECLINE TO MATCH
MODERATE GENERALLY NORTH BREEZES ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEYS
WATERS BY TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN
APPRECIABLY ON TUESDAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE. NEAR THE END
OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, AND
COULD BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF FRESHENING BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BKN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BREAK APART AFTER SUNRISE
ONLY LEAVING FEW SKY COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1998, THE "GROUNDHOG DAY" EVENT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND AN F1 TORNADO CAUSING $20.0M IN DAMAGE IN
MARATHON, AND AN F0 TORNADO IN ISLAMORADA. THE LONG KEY C-MAN
STATION REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 104 KT. KEY WEST SET A DAILY RECORD
FOR RAINFALL WITH 2.34".
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 61 54 68 60 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 58 50 65 59 / 0 0 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ076.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ042-052-
053-072-073.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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