112
FXUS62 KKEY 021552
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1052 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN OUR EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- WEATHER WILL TREND DRIER AND MODESTLY WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
A VERY COLD MORNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. RECORD LOWS WERE
UNOFFICIALLY SET AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORTS, WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AT 49F AND 44F,
RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN, NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE PREVENTING TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING APPRECIABLY THUS FAR TODAY. CURRENT LAND-BASED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE DETECTING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES
NUDGING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND NIL RAIN CHANCES.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO TONIGHT. WITH SLACKENING BREEZES
AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER, A POTENTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
UNFOLD, SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN
THE SHELTERED PORTIONS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHILE WE'VE GENERALLY SEEN THE EXTREME ENDS OF BOTH THE
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENT, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP TO START THE WEEK. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE SLIDING TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE
NORTHERLY BREEZES SUSTAINING THE COOL, DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. THUS, THE ENVIRONMENT CAPTURED BY YESTERDAY EVENING'S KKEY
00Z SOUNDING SHOULD BE A GOOD PREDICTION OF WHAT TODAY'S
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ENTAIL. A LARGE MASS OF DRY AIR
ABOVE A SHARP INVERSION AT 850 MB WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
EASILY CALLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE A FIGHT TO REACH OVER
60 DEGREES TODAY, BUT CLEARER SKIES THAN YESTERDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT'S EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING IT TO STRETCH OUT OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY VEER BREEZES TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AT NIGHT MAY
RESULT IN SOME BOUTS OF RADIATIVE COOLING WITH SOME POSSIBLY
OVERACHIEVING LOW TEMPERATURES. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY THAT WILL THEN
REINFORCE OUR COOLER WEATHER WITH A DAY OR SO OF BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLIES. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE A TOUCH LATER AND LESS
INTENSE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT STILL LOOK TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA OFF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WITH RESIDUAL SEAS NEAR
7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR THE REMAINING STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER
KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, MODERATE, GENERALLY NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
WILL SLACKEN APPRECIABLY ON TUESDAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE.
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA, AND COULD BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF FRESHENING BREEZES AND
BUILDING SEAS.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY MORNING. NEAR-SURFACE, MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 16 TO 18 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS BECOMING LESS FREQUENT AND LOWER AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 61 54 68 60 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 58 50 65 59 / 0 0 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ052-
053-072-073.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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